00:03:40.360Okay, first is the mythical quote, which I think is the symbol. If there were like a spirit animal in language, this would be it for centrist, which is fiscally conservative, but socially liberal, I feel like is the term you hear very often.
00:03:53.440Yes. I feel I feel like growing up, I believe that centrists were the most rational because they're not drawn to either extreme. So there's like this implication of rationality. It's like, I believe in gun rights, but not X. I believe in this, but not this. But I don't actually know. I couldn't list to you who a centrist candidate. Maybe Bill Clinton is because he ran as a Democrat, but was a Republican. But he's like the only example I can give.
00:04:18.940So to me, centrism does a few things. It tends to inadvertently favor the way that things mostly already are. It tends to imply that slow change is inherently preferable. But overall, what's interesting about this concept and the way it's often used is that there is no coherent hallmark of this belief system, the same way that there is for conservatism or leftism, which both tend to have more coherent ideological underpinnings.
00:06:48.980And I will also add that as you're talking about this, I think I would refine my description
00:06:53.700of centrism to say that it's a performance and not an identity.
00:06:57.180And I feel like Kamala Harris tried to perform centrism.
00:07:00.660These pundits try to perform centrism, but no one actually is one.
00:07:04.740That actually fits nicely with my theory.
00:07:07.880And I think, of course, you have the er-reactionary centrist, Barry Weiss, the queen of the centrists, the queen of the, like, I'm the adult in the room.
00:07:19.720There's an Onion headline that someone sent that was like, it was like a fake Barry Weiss quote that was like, Barry Weiss says ideological diversity begins and ends with her.
00:07:31.540So I don't want to spend too much time on the relatively tired Democrats should move to the center or Democrats should tack to the right stuff because it feels like old hat at this point. We've covered it ad nauseum. But part of the challenge with pulling centrist takes that make that same argument about how the right should moderate is that there aren't any.
00:07:51.020What about Bret Stephens? What about, like, the David Brooks and Bret Stephenses of the New York Times?
00:08:41.960Democrats are currently rallying around time-honored progressive ideas,
00:08:45.900like a defense of Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security.
00:08:49.540These stances can indeed help them return to power in the Senate, but only if they are accompanied by more eclectic and heterodox positions on everything else.
00:08:58.300A party that's against the domestic production of fossil fuels is not going to win in Texas, Alaska, or Ohio, okay?
00:09:04.840On a range of cultural issues such as the death penalty, late-term abortions, trans people's participation on women's sport teams, and immigration enforcement, Democrats have let themselves get persistently on the wrong side of national public opinion.
00:09:18.860to say nothing of opinion in red states.
00:09:46.740But when he talks about Democrats failing to become more moderate on these positions, I mean, we learned this with the episode on trans athletes. These aren't organic issues. These are issues that are astroturfed by billionaires, and we just don't have that support on the left.
00:10:02.320And so the idea that they're like coming up short, it's like, well, right, that's because someone has spent half a billion dollars coming up with a wedge issue that Democrats have to respond to and that is designed for them to not win at.
00:10:15.760So the suggestion that that's just like an organic thing that they don't know how to succeed, I feel like ignores the underlying trail of money.
00:10:23.320Carolyn, you're playing into my hand perfectly.
00:10:25.140You're playing into my outline perfectly.
00:16:20.860New York is overwhelmingly Democratic.
00:16:23.640Last year, Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump in New York City by 37 points,
00:16:27.800which was quite low by historic standards.
00:16:30.520Previous Democratic presidential candidates have carried the city by 50 to 60 points.
00:16:35.560In politics, making it in New York City says almost nothing about whether you can make it anywhere.
00:16:40.660A win is a win, but Mamdani's nine-point margin over Cuomo is deeply unimpressive in a city where Democrats usually win.
00:16:47.720I'm sure I'm going to feel this way many times today, but I'm just like, I'm blown away by how bad that logic is.
00:16:54.460That's just like a shockingly bad argument.
00:16:56.420Yeah, I'm like, do you see any issues with the logic that you'd like to point out for everyone?
00:17:02.620I mean, to state it really plainly, the shock of Mamdani's campaign is that he's not like a Hillary Clinton who was a state senator for decades.
00:17:10.520This is a completely unknown candidate, a Muslim candidate in New York City who went from polling at like one or two percent and then in what, seven months, was suddenly competing with Andrew Cuomo, a dynasty candidate.
00:17:24.580it. That is the most important detail. The idea that they're just using this, like, it kind of0.59
00:17:28.580reminds me a little bit. I wonder if we're going to talk about Nate Silver, where it's like these
00:17:31.600guys. I thought about that. These guys kind of define themselves as being numbers guys. And I
00:17:36.220will say outright, I am not a numbers person, but like just using your head, you're like, this can't
00:17:41.180possibly be the most useful set of numbers for you to illustrate how people, like when you think
00:17:47.020about the stats of how people vote in elections and how like nine times out of 10 people just
00:17:51.100vote out of name recognition. Like, we think it's all complex and people are weighing things out,
00:17:55.200but it's just the people they know. The fact that Mom Donnie won is shocking. It is shocking.
00:18:01.140One other thing that I'd like to point out about this, just to state it even more plainly,
00:18:06.060he is comparing a Democrat running against a Republican, Kamala Harris running against
00:18:10.920Donald Trump, to a Democrat running against another Democrat.
00:18:15.020Yes! Great point, Katie. This is why I'm not a numbers person.
00:18:17.980And going, uh, it's like not that big of a margin. And it's like, well, Momdani beat the
00:18:23.320Republican in the race by 44 points, not nine points. So like, and he would have beat him by
00:18:30.700more if you didn't functionally have another Democrat. It was two Democrats, one running as
00:18:36.640an independent, but two Democrats versus a Republican. And Momdani still beat the Republican
00:18:41.420by 44 points. It would have been a 90 point blowout had Cuomo not been in the race.
00:18:47.900So something that you'll notice about these highbrow centrist arguments is that they also tend to infantilize those who have more ambitious goals.
00:18:57.500If you will please read the following and then just like note the points where word choice or like the language being used sticks out to you.
00:19:05.540The fallacy seized upon by Mamdani's giddy supporters, okay, is that his victory overturns the conventional wisdom that voters punish extreme candidates.
00:19:14.200Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut wrote on X that Mamdani's election revealed important lessons, such as focus on shifting economic power, and that the elites have little idea what's actually mainstream.
00:19:26.660Many have noted Mamdani's knack for mobilizing enthusiastic swarms of young voters, and the fact that he garnered more votes than any other New York mayoral candidate since John Lindsay in 1969.
00:19:37.600But I'm going to explain why that doesn't matter.
00:19:41.040With a complete non sequitur. That really doesn't make any sense.
00:19:44.440Can I just say, I think this is revealing my inner Swifty, but I'm like, I've read this before in every article about why Taylor Swift actually isn't that good.
00:19:53.620And it's actually not that impressive.
00:19:56.420The problem that extreme candidates tend to face is that though they may mobilize supporters, they also mobilize voters against them.
00:20:03.820What? And what matters in politics is not how many votes you get, but how many more you get than your opponent.
00:20:10.880You may recall Trump insisting that he must have won the 2020 election because he pulled in more votes than any candidate in history, except for Joe Biden, who won more.
00:21:53.220Maybe, Jonathan, what you should take from this is that voters don't actually punish candidates that have extreme ideas.
00:22:00.580But words like giddy, the scare quotes around phrases like shifting economic power or the idea that elites are out of touch.
00:22:09.420He doesn't have to say, well, these people are just unserious to convey his perspective about those who believe in silly things like shifting economic power.
00:22:19.420Lastly, he argues that Mamdani was able to win because he embraced more centrist ideas on some of his supposedly unpopular positions.
00:22:29.160Again, no evidence, no evidence that any of this was unpopular with anyone other than the people who wrote for The Atlantic.
00:22:35.740But here's what he says about this, and I think this is the most, like, flagrantly bad faith part of this article.
00:22:42.000It should also be noted that, like, 99% of centrists are white men, followed by white women.
00:22:48.280You have to be a white man or woman who communicates in a certain way in order for any of this to be communicated as intelligent.
00:22:55.940Except for Thomas Chatterton Williams.0.57