If Books Could Kill - June 17, 2025


"In Covid's Wake" Part 1: Lying About Lockdowns

Topics
Bonus: The Lab Leak Goes Mainstream "In Covid's Wake" Part 2: Wrong About The Right

Episode Stats


Length

57 minutes

Words per minute

188.5

Word count

10,924

Sentence count

683

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

117

sentences flagged

Hate speech

23

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
00:00:00.000 I've been dealing with a very Hobbesian ailment lately.
00:00:04.720 I believe that I have turf toe.
00:00:06.640 Your feet are transphobic?
00:00:08.060 It's like a sprain of the big toe.
00:00:10.720 They call it turf toe because it happens in sports with AstroTurf a lot.
00:00:14.400 How did you do that?
00:00:15.280 Probably just walking.
00:00:16.540 Basically, it's like you overextended or like a little too harshly or whatever.
00:00:19.660 That is Hobbesian because it's like my humors are out of balance.
00:00:22.140 There's no like actual reason it's happening.
00:00:25.500 We've been going on a lot of like walks around our local like reservoir and stuff for a few miles.
00:00:31.180 And it could have been like it could have been from workout stuff.
00:00:34.200 I don't know.
00:00:34.620 This is your 40s, dude.
00:00:35.640 You're doing like CSI reconstructions.
00:00:38.260 And your pillow was like half a centimeter too low.
00:00:41.900 And so your neck hurt for like two weeks.
00:00:44.220 If my neck is not like at like the angle that God chose when I'm watching television, it will hurt for three days.
00:00:51.060 Same.
00:00:53.080 But it doesn't stop me from doing it anyway.
00:00:55.120 I've been lying on couches in various ways for 40 years.
00:01:00.780 Yeah.
00:01:01.220 And suddenly it doesn't work?
00:01:02.600 I know.
00:01:02.800 I'm not going to stop doing it just because it's literally killing me.
00:01:05.560 Absolutely not.
00:01:06.360 Okay.
00:01:06.560 What have you, zing-wise?
00:01:08.420 Okay.
00:01:08.760 Yeah, I can do it.
00:01:09.580 I can do it.
00:01:10.020 Peter.
00:01:10.580 Michael.
00:01:11.120 What do you know about In COVID's Wake?
00:01:13.640 All I know is that the only book about COVID that I want to read is the one about why it
00:01:18.760 turned every Republican insane.
00:01:25.120 so the full title of this book is in covid's wake colon how our politics failed us it is by
00:01:41.140 steven macedo and francis lee two political scientists at princeton not real jobs folks
00:01:47.320 unemployed as far as i'm concerned there's really no reason for us to be talking about this book
00:01:52.540 I mean, this book, just to spoil it, like this book is awful.
00:01:56.060 It's reactionary.
00:01:57.160 It has a very self-published on Amazon kind of feel to it.
00:02:00.860 It's just kind of janky throughout.
00:02:03.180 Yeah, you already said that they're political scientists, Michael.
00:02:05.500 We can move on.
00:02:07.920 Otherwise, we wouldn't be talking about this.
00:02:09.600 But these authors have been featured on episodes of The Daily, on an entire segment on PBS NewsHour.
00:02:16.680 They are being featured in all kinds of like mainstream respectable media.
00:02:20.560 And the message of this book is providing like a backbone for this wave of COVID revisionism that has the costume of something that is like a serious reflection on the mistakes that we made during COVID.
00:02:33.260 But it's actually just like right wing agitprop.
00:02:35.280 I'm glad we're doing this just because I have noticed anecdotally the proliferation of arguments about COVID that are basically arguments that like we did too much.
00:02:48.000 Yes.
00:02:48.280 And implicitly that we should have just let it rip.
00:02:51.560 Yep.
00:02:51.880 Which to me, a man of science and reason, feels a little wild when we know that COVID
00:03:00.700 killed a million people here and counting with these measures.
00:03:04.760 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:03:05.440 It just feels a little bit crazy to me to be like, did we go overboard?
00:03:09.400 I think this is the main thing that really bugs me like on a gut level about this book
00:03:13.680 is that like they are lying to your face about something that you remember. 2020 was not that
00:03:20.240 long ago. I remember the fucking pandemic, right? I know the statistics. If you look at official 0.99
00:03:25.580 COVID death rates, so adjusted for population, America is the 17th worst in the world. So out
00:03:32.720 of 190 countries, only 16 countries have more COVID deaths than we do. And if you look at excess
00:03:38.920 deaths, which is like a more fair way to do country comparisons, because a lot of countries
00:03:43.400 didn't track their COVID deaths very well, were 30th. And the thing is, people often try to kind
00:03:48.660 of write this off as like, well, we're not New Zealand, right? We're not a small country where
00:03:52.780 we can control our borders. We never could have handled it that well. But Canada has half the
00:03:58.160 death rate of America. Like, like, it was a massive blunder the way that we managed the COVID pandemic.
00:04:05.080 It just was. Also, a lot of the places where our death rates were terrible are places where people
00:04:10.420 live like a quarter mile apart.
00:04:13.200 Yeah, South Dakota.
00:04:13.860 There's just no defending it.
00:04:15.640 In the introduction,
00:04:17.300 actually, I'll send this to you.
00:04:18.400 This is one of the core arguments
00:04:19.680 they make throughout.
00:04:20.500 They do this whole thing,
00:04:21.780 this kind of Barry Weiss song and dance
00:04:23.320 where they're like, I'm a liberal.
00:04:25.240 But, you know, from within our coalition,
00:04:27.260 we really have to ask tough questions
00:04:29.480 about where our group think
00:04:31.000 is leading us astray.
00:04:32.400 So here is this.
00:04:34.900 A vital source of strength and resilience
00:04:36.680 is liberalism's commitment
00:04:37.980 to fair-minded criticism and self-criticism.
00:04:40.420 The willingness to entertain doubts, listen to other points of view, and revise our own commitments.
00:04:46.720 These should not have been set aside under COVID.
00:04:49.760 Oh, my God, dude.
00:04:50.780 I can't.
00:04:51.340 Dude. 1.00
00:04:51.800 I already hate these guys so fucking much. 0.99
00:04:54.120 This is why I can't stop skeeting about this. 1.00
00:04:56.020 This is why every fucking thing I've done on the internet for like three weeks, it's like, fuck these people. 0.99
00:05:00.420 To many on the left, the willingness to listen fair-mindedly to those on the right is a luxury we can no longer afford. 0.99
00:05:06.220 Not while Donald Trump occupied the White House and not so long as the Republican Party remains in thrall to election deniers, climate change skeptics, and people who deny structural racism.
00:05:15.700 This is a mistake.
00:05:17.060 The partisan mindset has lumped reasonable questions in with irresponsible claims because both are associated with the same source, the opposing party.
00:05:25.060 This is a prescription for failures of critical thinking.
00:05:27.860 Under COVID, there were heavy consequences.
00:05:30.220 okay so this is the same argument we saw when we were talking about the lab leak in our bonus
00:05:36.540 episode now made free to all listeners because we're philanthropists where basically the idea
00:05:41.800 is we we we got too oppositional yeah anything coming out of the right was rejected offhand
00:05:47.780 even though some of it was correct although it's interesting that he's like you know we weren't
00:05:51.880 listening to them because they're election deniers it's like well rfk doesn't even believe in 0.99
00:05:57.500 fucking germ theory. Right. They're not thinking through the consequences of what they're saying 0.99
00:06:01.560 right there. They're not saying, oh, they're actually not climate change deniers. You may
00:06:04.240 think they are, but they actually aren't. Right. No, they're just accepting they are climate change
00:06:07.620 deniers. They did try to overturn a free and fair election. They're just accepting all that. But
00:06:11.800 they're like, oh, but you're being too mean to them. I guess there's like a theoretical argument
00:06:15.080 here that's understandable, where it's like not every single thing that comes out of right wing
00:06:20.020 circles is necessarily wrong. Sure. The thing is that I don't think that is the source of the
00:06:27.320 left positions on covid right it's just not i mean we're mostly going to skip it because it's
00:06:31.480 so boring peter and we've read it a million times but at least like a third of this book
00:06:35.120 is dedicated to like criticism of dissidents was unfair people were too mean and then every single
00:06:41.180 dissident is somebody who said like oh covid will only kill like 10 000 people it's basically the 0.99
00:06:45.100 flu yeah idiots that's the thing it's like we're fucking wrong when these people were running their 0.99
00:06:50.020 mouth in early covid like you know elon musk being like i think the numbers will stop here 1.00
00:06:54.640 right just talking out of his ass yes and a bunch of people are like you don't know what you're 0.94
00:06:59.040 talking about yeah those people were correct they're yeah exactly it's like sorry what what 0.99
00:07:03.300 do you think that we as a society should do with people who lie constantly and are proven to be
00:07:09.220 wrong right you don't think we should marginalize those people i'm sorry what what is your understanding
00:07:13.220 of like what a society is like what is merit yeah like you're trying to you're trying to explain
00:07:17.780 this to like a child like if you're good you should get rewards and if you're bad you should
00:07:22.480 get punishments. Like, this is a really fundamental aspect of human community. And they're just like,
00:07:27.560 oh, no, no, no. Let's ignore the fact that they were wrong. Other people were mean to them. Well,
00:07:32.020 they were wrong in a way that would have killed literally tens to hundreds of thousands of people.
00:07:36.020 And like, is it really okay that the Secretary of Health and Human Services eats roadkill?
00:07:42.380 Is that really okay? Yeah, exactly. Well, this is the outcome that this argument produces,
00:07:48.020 is fucking RFK Jr. in office. So for this episode, we're going to just talk about the 0.98
00:07:54.220 pandemic chronologically. So this roughly follows the format of the book, but there's kind of
00:07:59.220 discrete phases of the pandemic. And so the first phase we're going to talk about is like pre-pandemic.
00:08:05.180 What did science know about non-pharmaceutical interventions before the pandemic started?
00:08:10.660 So here is a clip of them talking about the state of the science before the pandemic.
00:08:15.720 Frances, one of the things that was a real revelation to me was how you document in the book that prior to COVID, that there was a good deal of analysis done about what happens if a respiratory virus does emerge.
00:08:30.640 And the consensus or some version of a consensus was that lockdowns are not that effective and that they would cost society enormously.
00:08:39.800 Yes, there had been a tremendous amount of work planning for what to do when the next pandemic arrived.
00:08:47.180 And we took measures in the early going of the pandemic that were at odds with the recommendations.
00:08:53.700 They had been recommended against in some cases.
00:08:56.500 There was a World Health Organization report from November 2019 that looked at what was known about all the proposed non-pharmaceutical interventions.
00:09:06.300 This is masks, shutdowns, isolation, testing, tracing, etc.
00:09:11.160 Business closures, school closures.
00:09:12.900 Looked at what was known about the effectiveness of each of those measures.
00:09:17.300 And across the board, the report states that the evidence base for the effectiveness of each of them was poor.
00:09:23.640 And so it's so striking that you get six months later and those measures are being employed all around the world with policymakers saying that they're following the science.
00:09:34.080 And of course, it's quite obvious that all of those measures have tremendous costs.
00:09:38.940 So as policymakers are weighing their alternatives, there's uncertain benefits, but certain costs.
00:09:46.960 But I know a report that came out before we knew exactly how COVID spread.
00:09:53.200 A report that was not about COVID because COVID didn't exist yet.
00:09:55.680 Well, it existed in a lab in Wuhan.
00:09:57.420 So basically, the argument they're making here is that before the pandemic, everyone in public health kind of knew that things like mask mandates, lockdowns, travel restrictions, they knew that these things didn't work.
00:10:08.460 They had no real evidence that they worked.
00:10:10.500 And yet, as soon as we get to 2020, all these public health officials are saying, oh, we should all we should do these lockdowns.
00:10:16.580 We should use mask mandates.
00:10:17.760 Right.
00:10:18.160 Most of their chapter in the book covers this WHO document from November of 2019.
00:10:22.560 They're basically going through and saying, OK, what is the evidence for masks?
00:10:25.920 What is the evidence for stay at home orders? Right. Yeah. And so the first thing to know about the WHO document, as we mentioned, this is about the flu. This is not about COVID. As of 2020, the fatality rate of COVID was about seven times higher than the flu. So it's talking about something that was less severe in basically every way we know how to measure that. And so the recommendations kind of follow from that.
00:10:47.620 The second thing that you need to know about the WHO report is that it has all these recommendations
00:10:53.240 of like, yes, you should do this, no, you should do that. And the authors of In COVID's Wake
00:10:56.920 make big hay about the fact that like certain things like contact tracing, the WHO says it's
00:11:02.000 like not recommended in any circumstance. But all of these recommendations in the WHO report
00:11:07.340 are provisional. So for border closures, it says, border closure is generally not recommended
00:11:13.280 unless required by national law in extraordinary circumstances during a severe pandemic.
00:11:19.560 Right.
00:11:19.900 So over and over again in this document, they're like, wait, don't do contact tracing
00:11:23.760 unless you have like this massive once in a century global thing on your hands.
00:11:27.980 So like, yeah.
00:11:29.200 Yeah.
00:11:29.560 Things are different when things are different.
00:11:31.140 This reminds me of a really irritating argument about this stuff that I've seen pop up occasionally,
00:11:37.320 which is just sort of pointing out that things like masks, social distancing,
00:11:41.680 have like limited efficacy.
00:11:44.220 Right.
00:11:44.440 The thing is, even if masking reduced transmission by 10%,
00:11:49.180 it would be really important to get people to do it
00:11:52.360 because at scale, you're saving thousands and thousands of lives.
00:11:57.460 But then those are kind of like the obvious surface level problems
00:12:00.120 with this argument that like the WHO,
00:12:01.740 like everybody knew that like masks and lockdowns don't work before the pandemic.
00:12:05.280 The main thing to know about this document is that
00:12:08.240 the document is using what's called the grade standard. This is a kind of objective measure
00:12:13.960 of how high quality is research. And the grade standard is based on this principle that like
00:12:19.040 you want a standard of research across every single field to say what is high quality,
00:12:24.300 medium quality, and low quality research. So the kind of gold standard is like a double blind,
00:12:29.440 placebo controlled, randomized control trial. And then at the bottom is just like a case report.
00:12:34.460 Like there's one patient and we tried this thing and then he got better. That's the lowest quality
00:12:38.180 right? The lowest certainty. But the thing about using these grade standards is that many, many
00:12:44.580 interventions cannot be studied in a randomized control trial. So in this WHO document, they go
00:12:50.560 through categories of various different interventions that you can do to prevent a respiratory
00:12:54.400 pandemic. And one of them is a respiratory etiquette. So this is like covering your mouth
00:12:59.400 when coughing. The authors of In COVID's Wake make a lot of hay of the fact that like, oh,
00:13:04.000 there's no evidence for this and yet they recommended it. But in the actual WHO paper,
00:13:10.560 they say the quality of evidence could not be judged because no study was identified.
00:13:15.480 You cannot do a study where you tell a thousand people to cover their mouth when they sneeze
00:13:20.200 and another one where you tell them not to cover their mouth when they sneeze because people 0.99
00:13:23.920 already fucking do that. It's like a thing in society that we already practice. It's basically 0.96
00:13:28.920 already just background public health guidance. You wouldn't get high compliance if you told
00:13:33.180 people just, oh, cough in other people's faces. We also know enough about the spread of illnesses
00:13:37.440 that it's really irresponsible if you have the flu to go around doing that, even if it's for
00:13:42.220 a study. So there is quote unquote no evidence that covering your mouth when you cough works
00:13:47.540 to prevent a pandemic, but that's because you can't gather evidence on it. It's not the kind
00:13:51.240 of thing you can do a study on. I'm going to go down to Princeton and cough in these
00:13:54.240 motherfuckers' faces. Don't worry, Francis, there's no evidence. The other one that drives 1.00
00:13:58.860 me fucking crazy, is in this paper, they also talk about isolation. So basically, when you're 0.87
00:14:03.280 sick, you should stay home. And they say the quality of evidence for this intervention is
00:14:08.820 very low. The In COVID's Wake authors are saying, oh, they're admitting that there's low quality
00:14:13.840 evidence. But again, you cannot tell people if you have the flu, oh yeah, go about your business.
00:14:19.640 You can't do a randomized controlled trial on this. It would be wildly unethical and the
00:14:24.480 compliance would be really low. So low quality evidence in this case basically just means it
00:14:29.740 hasn't been meaningfully studied. You can't do a study on it. Or at least at that granular of a
00:14:34.780 level, right? Because we do understand that proximity to other people impacts the spread
00:14:40.720 of infectious disease. That's not exactly contested. This is actually exactly what they
00:14:45.500 say about mask mandates. So here is their summary from the book where they're talking about face
00:14:51.360 masks the assessment also stated that in severe epidemics or pandemics face masks worn by
00:14:56.880 asymptomatic people are conditionally recommended to reduce transmission despite there being quote
00:15:02.280 no evidence that the use of face masks is effective there is nevertheless quote mechanistic
00:15:07.920 plausibility right which which means what we're saying which is yes there's no specific study on
00:15:13.900 this because of the difficulty of conducting that exact study but like we understand the mechanism
00:15:18.920 Right. Therefore, we basically know that this works.
00:15:21.760 And also the incredible thing about this is that there is actually quite a bit of evidence.
00:15:25.980 There's a number of randomized controlled trials that have been done with masks.
00:15:29.900 One of them, they take kids in college dorms.
00:15:32.300 In one dorm, they're like, OK, wear a mask all winter.
00:15:34.600 And in the other dorm, they're like, oh, don't wear a mask.
00:15:36.360 And then at the end, you see how many kids got common cold, flu, et cetera, at the end of that period.
00:15:40.840 And they do actually find that people who wore masks are much less likely to get sick.
00:15:45.040 The problem is that study was done on wearing masks and handwashing.
00:15:50.000 So the reason you can't say with 100 percent certainty that masks work is because there's two interventions being done at the same time and you haven't isolated just masks.
00:15:59.500 So, again, this is science being responsible.
00:16:02.520 They're being transparent. 1.00
00:16:04.080 I fucking love these political science dipshits. 0.99
00:16:07.400 Dude, trying to navigate these documents that reflect the work of people who do actual science. 0.99
00:16:17.020 Like, yeah, sorry. 0.99
00:16:18.140 Like, it's just not your fucking field. 0.96
00:16:19.500 How are you how are you doing a two author book coming out of Princeton and neither of you are like, should we tap someone from our prestigious university who does work on infectious disease? 0.99
00:16:33.800 Perhaps no.
00:16:34.580 So two political scientists, the greatest force known to man.
00:16:38.680 And so throughout this report, over and over again for almost every single intervention,
00:16:43.040 they keep mentioning that like evidence is moderate, evidence is low quality, but they
00:16:46.520 also give the reasons why the evidence is low quality. 0.99
00:16:49.420 They also say that these fucking interventions work. 0.99
00:16:52.240 Right. 0.99
00:16:52.420 So in the contact tracing section, they say contact tracing combined with other interventions
00:16:57.860 is effective in reducing influenza transmission in the community.
00:17:01.100 but the effect of contact tracing alone is unknown because when you have these natural
00:17:06.220 experiments like SARS outbreak, et cetera. Right. You combine different. Yes. Countries
00:17:09.780 will do like 10 things at once. And so at the end, you're like, okay, well, those 10 things
00:17:12.740 worked extremely well. We can't say this one thing was decisive or this other thing was decisive.
00:17:19.320 What if for the next pandemic, we just try one of these? That way we have a coherent
00:17:23.660 piece of data. So the reason, I mean, this is like such a fucking dunk fest, but like the reason I 0.96
00:17:28.480 wanted to bring this up is first of all just to establish like the bad faith and scientific 0.89
00:17:33.500 illiteracy of the authors of this book like i'm genuinely trying to approach this in good faith
00:17:37.720 but it's like they're literally lying in their first substantive chapter there's almost an
00:17:42.480 implication behind a lot of these arguments that like that something nefarious was going on with
00:17:48.280 the implementation of these measures right yeah if you go into fringe right-wing circles the
00:17:55.040 argument was always like, they're never going to lift these restrictions, right? Like it's a
00:18:00.320 control mechanism. Of course, they did lift the restrictions. The whole argument falls apart,
00:18:03.740 but it doesn't matter. I don't understand these people who really seem to believe that like
00:18:09.080 someone somewhere had an interest in pushing ineffective mitigation techniques on all of us.
00:18:15.280 I don't get it. Right. This actually comes back to something you mentioned in our lab leak
00:18:18.240 episode where they're talking about all the scientists engaging in a coverup and they say
00:18:23.160 scientists with mixed motives. And you were like, hang on, what were their motives? Why would a
00:18:29.860 bunch of American scientists help China engage in a coverup of a lab leak? It's sort of the same
00:18:34.760 thing here too, where it's like, sorry, if everyone in public health knew that these measures don't
00:18:40.900 work, why was every country in the world recommending them in March of 2020? Which scenario
00:18:47.280 makes more sense, right? Hundreds of thousands of public health workers around the world
00:18:51.680 recommended a bunch of steps that they know are ineffective? Or is it more likely that two people
00:18:58.860 without the relevant expertise are misreading a report? Is he wearing a burgundy suit?
00:19:04.000 How dare you, Peter? That's from this month's Target Pride collection. It's all burgundy. It's
00:19:08.980 all beige. The tag just has a homophobic slur. That's how you know it's in the Target Pride
00:19:15.120 collection for 2025. We're here. We're queer. Don't look at me. Yes. The other reason why I
00:19:21.520 wanted to talk about this, not just to establish the lack of credibility of the authors, is also
00:19:25.320 you hear this so much when you're talking about conspiracy movements and public health. What you
00:19:29.660 often hear is if scientists had been more transparent about the downsides of public
00:19:34.280 health measures, or if the CDC had been more transparent about the harms of vaccines, right?
00:19:38.760 There are very small, but there are existing risks of vaccines. If public health had been
00:19:44.160 more transparent about that, you wouldn't see these anti-vaxxers, right? These conspiracy
00:19:47.640 movements, what they're really reacting to is like the lack of transparency, the lack of
00:19:51.800 accountability of our public health infrastructure. This chapter demonstrates how false that argument
00:19:57.740 is, right? This is a document from the WHO being extremely transparent about, we have no evidence
00:20:03.840 that you should stay home when you're sick, right? A study has never been done. We have no evidence
00:20:07.760 of that, yet we are recommending it anyway. Here is why, right? And then these bad faith actors
00:20:12.780 come in and they go, oh, so there's no evidence and you're recommending it anyway, right?
00:20:17.180 Admitting the weaknesses in your arguments and in your data will not tamp down conspiracy
00:20:22.140 theorists.
00:20:22.780 They will latch on to every single weakness. 0.98
00:20:25.040 The idea that conspiracy theories emanate from like a lack of transparency is ridiculous. 1.00
00:20:32.040 That's what they say, but they fucking lie all the time. 0.99
00:20:35.200 They also say that vaccines cause autism. 1.00
00:20:36.960 You can't trust what these people fucking say. 1.00
00:20:38.800 Right. 1.00
00:20:39.020 They think the earth is flat.
00:20:40.340 You can't you can't be like, well, what do you want to hear?
00:20:43.180 This is not it's just not how their brains work.
00:20:45.740 They don't know why why they are conspiracy theorists. 1.00
00:20:49.700 It's again, this is just two political scientists in way over their fucking heads. 0.99
00:20:55.640 Yeah. 1.00
00:20:55.980 Policy wise and suit wise.
00:20:58.820 OK, so we are now going to move through the timeline to 2020.
00:21:03.760 So we finally have the start of the pandemic in late January of 2020.
00:21:07.600 China imposes lockdown. On March 9th, Italy locks down. On March 13th, workplaces in the U.S. start
00:21:14.380 closing. On March 15th, we start getting school closures. March 16th, Trump issues a recommendation
00:21:20.120 to stay home, but he never actually issues a nationwide lockdown order. On March 19th,
00:21:25.360 we get the first stay at home orders. And just because there's like a lot of kind of discourse
00:21:31.360 about these and a lot of like weird misremembering of them, I just want to talk a little bit about
00:21:35.500 like the basic facts of the stay-at-home orders. So it was either 42 or 43 states issued stay-at-home
00:21:42.220 orders, depending on the way that you define it. There were tons of exemptions. So 16 states
00:21:48.320 allowed religious services to be exempt from stay-at-home orders, which is nuts because 0.99
00:21:52.780 that's like perfect super spreader event because everyone's fucking singing. 0.99
00:21:56.060 Right. And the Supreme Court intervened. 0.99
00:21:58.600 Religious freedom.
00:21:59.460 Yeah.
00:21:59.580 The average duration was 43 days.
00:22:03.460 With the exception of eight states, they were all over by June 1st.
00:22:06.660 They were also not enforced.
00:22:08.080 Right.
00:22:08.240 So I looked up the statute in Washington state, the stay-at-home order that I was under.
00:22:11.960 It was 70 days, which is, I think, the fifth longest in the U.S.
00:22:14.240 And it was like, you have to stay at home unless you're carrying out essential activities.
00:22:19.180 Right, right.
00:22:19.640 And then the definition of essential activities was like relatively broad.
00:22:22.300 It was like getting groceries, getting pharmaceutical stuff, caring for a loved one.
00:22:26.720 No cop was stopping you on the street.
00:22:28.480 no one was ever checking, like, what are you on your way to do? Many countries did actually have
00:22:32.740 enforcement of these things. And you'd get a ticket if you were out on the street.
00:22:35.660 Nowhere in America was anything like that ever imposed. What were you doing during this period,
00:22:39.960 Peter? Chilling.
00:22:42.040 You were in New York, right? Yeah, I was in Manhattan, the worst place to be.
00:22:45.600 Andrew Cuomo was actively trying to kill me at this time. You as a person in the United States
00:22:51.140 during 2020 were not heavily influenced by your state or municipality's lockdown order.
00:23:01.540 You were heavily impacted by your employer and your kid's school. Right. And that's what I think
00:23:11.140 people are reacting to and why they think the lockdowns actually were much longer than they
00:23:16.520 they were. Yeah, I think, I mean, a lot of these also included closure of businesses. I think
00:23:21.200 that's when it really sort of started to feel real for everybody was because like you just
00:23:24.260 couldn't go do anything, like even if you had wanted to. Right, right. I actually remember
00:23:27.560 ours being much shorter than it was. I remember ours being like two or three weeks. And I think
00:23:33.220 that's because all of the data indicates that compliance with the lockdown orders like started
00:23:39.000 to decay very quickly. So by week, like four or five people were like out doing stuff and like
00:23:43.720 seeing people. That's my recollection, too, is that when remember when like Republicans were
00:23:50.280 protesting outside of state houses. That was mid April. That was actually pretty quick. That was
00:23:54.380 after only two weeks of like actual lockdowns. It's wild. That makes sense. That's how long
00:23:58.320 it takes to drive Republicans completely insane. It's like, hey, can you just think about the
00:24:04.540 well-being of other people for two weeks? And that was they were like, no, marching to the
00:24:09.660 state house. Although what's actually interesting about that period is you really didn't see very
00:24:14.320 much politicization. The first couple of weeks, it was, I think it was something like 87% of
00:24:19.040 Americans like supported the lockdowns. One of the things that like really kind of like hurts
00:24:23.200 my heart about this book is that you have like what was really this great sacrifice that everybody
00:24:28.760 went into eyes wide open, right? Nobody thought that like lockdowns were going to be fun or good
00:24:34.160 or that like kids weren't going to suffer or that businesses weren't going to suffer.
00:24:37.520 everybody knew this and we made a decision collectively to like help other people like
00:24:42.960 they they say over and over in the book like the fatality rates were low for younger people and
00:24:46.900 like i fucking knew that i was like 35 my my risk of dying of covet was relatively low even before 0.56
00:24:53.140 i was vaccinated but also like yeah i'm fine to stay home for a while to help old people and 0.94
00:24:57.960 disabled people and people who are less fortunate than me like everyone knew that at the time no one
00:25:02.960 thought like oh this is gonna be great for kids like kids kids learning is gonna like go through
00:25:06.600 the roof during this period. Everyone knew it was going to be really fucking bad. And so we decided 0.97
00:25:11.320 to do this like kind of beautiful thing together. And then this whole wave of COVID revisionism
00:25:17.120 is like, no, it was ugly. We didn't have to do shit for those people. What you did for like 0.98
00:25:22.160 healthcare workers and disabled people and old people, they never thanked you for it. They lied 1.00
00:25:26.680 to you. It's like, why do this? It gets retconned as this really horrific thing. My genuine memory
00:25:34.060 of that really early phase those first couple of weeks was that there was a sense of like we're all
00:25:41.900 in this together that i have never felt in my life maybe outside of 9-11 except that applied
00:25:49.340 only to other people because i'm half iranian so but you saw it we were that we were the covid
00:25:55.080 of the post 9-11 period okay so here is the way that the in covid's wake authors summarize this
00:26:03.880 period. Their core argument is basically that there was no evidence that any of this would work
00:26:08.840 and public health knew it at the time. Experts knew that none of these non-pharmaceutical
00:26:13.220 interventions had previously been put to the test and evidence of their effectiveness was weak to
00:26:17.660 non-existent. There was much reason to doubt that such measures would work as intended,
00:26:22.020 most especially after a virus had spread widely. Experts also knew that elected officials had
00:26:26.680 incentives to use these measures for political reasons, to appear to be doing something,
00:26:30.820 and to pretend to be in control in the face of public fear.
00:26:35.000 The policies pursued were plagued by persistent ambiguity about goals.
00:26:38.660 The initial shutdowns in the United States were justified as 15 days to slow the spread,
00:26:43.460 to curb disease transmission to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.
00:26:46.960 But key actors hoped to reduce the total number of COVID deaths
00:26:49.940 intended to keep restrictions in place as long as possible
00:26:52.740 and used slowing the spread as a pretext.
00:26:55.800 As a pretext. They were using it as a pretext to prevent death.
00:26:58.480 Key actors hoped to reduce the total number of COVID deaths.
00:27:02.440 They're like shady actors behind the scenes were trying to prevent death.
00:27:07.420 This is the most minute distinction that's like, oh, they wanted to lock us down to prevent
00:27:13.740 the spread, but they were actually trying to prevent deaths.
00:27:16.300 Right.
00:27:16.620 I mean, A, I don't think they were lying about that.
00:27:18.760 B, is that really a meaningful lie?
00:27:20.740 This is crazy.
00:27:22.300 I mean, the first part of this is also just the same error that you were discussing before
00:27:26.980 where they're acting like the evidence that this stuff works is weak when, in fact, it's not.
00:27:32.680 It's relatively strong.
00:27:34.340 We just don't have, like, very specific studies.
00:27:37.440 And then you have the second part where it feels like maybe this is the heart of the argument,
00:27:44.540 the idea that this is being done performatively.
00:27:47.980 It's very conspiratorial.
00:27:49.240 They drift into conspiracy very often in this book because they have this thing of that public
00:27:53.300 health experts intended to keep restrictions in place as long as possible. And like, yeah,
00:27:58.140 they were very transparent about this. The restrictions should stay in place until
00:28:01.120 we've controlled the spread of COVID and healthcare systems are not overwhelmed.
00:28:05.520 Yeah.
00:28:05.700 This was totally transparent. Yes. As long as possible to prevent death.
00:28:08.840 They're acting, and I see a lot of people act as though Fauci or something was dictating
00:28:15.800 policy across the country.
00:28:18.100 They make this argument very clear in the conclusion, but they're basically saying that
00:28:20.780 Like public health experts were given dictatorial control over the country, and we never should
00:28:25.480 have given so much power over to these narrow public health, you know, wonks, whatever.
00:28:30.740 But America is actually a very good example of that not being true, right?
00:28:34.660 Because different states had very different lockdown policies.
00:28:37.040 Right.
00:28:37.160 The CDC issued guidance.
00:28:38.920 State public health agencies issued guidance.
00:28:40.720 Also, there were tons of economic forecasts, and governors took all that information, and
00:28:45.120 they issued stay-at-home orders or didn't, or reopened, or closed this business, or not
00:28:49.320 this other business or masks or no masks. There was actually a wide diversity of approaches across
00:28:54.440 the United States. So if public health officials had been given this dictatorial power, we would
00:28:59.440 have seen much more strict restrictions and we would have seen unified restrictions. We didn't
00:29:03.620 see that. Let me let me steel man a good faith version of this complaint. Right. Which is that
00:29:09.460 like, OK, the policy decisions happen at the state and local levels, but a relatively small handful
00:29:18.060 of public health officials have undue influence over the decisions because they're the ones
00:29:24.100 putting out the guidance at the federal level. Right. Sure. If we want there to be federal public
00:29:31.080 health officials, the question isn't do they put out guidance or not? Right. Because the whole role
00:29:37.140 is putting out guidance. The real question is, who do you want the public health officials to be?
00:29:43.020 Do you want it to be the serious scientists or do you want it to be the roadkill eaters?
00:29:49.020 That's the question.
00:29:50.400 So as evidence of their argument that none of these restrictions were effective or necessary, they take us to Sweden.
00:29:59.560 So the next chapter is called The Swedish Alternative, where they talk about how Sweden didn't do any of these large scale lockdowns.
00:30:08.360 They say, no large-scale test and trace regimes were attempted.
00:30:12.700 Masks were never mandated.
00:30:13.980 No stay-at-home orders or restrictions on movement were imposed.
00:30:17.000 Restaurants and gyms were not closed.
00:30:18.580 Sports continued.
00:30:19.800 And then they say this.
00:30:21.840 Most of the population was at very low risk. 0.59
00:30:24.480 It was the very old, sick, and frail who were at serious risk.
00:30:27.940 Preventative measures could be concentrated on the vulnerable.
00:30:30.920 People could be relied upon to change their behavior voluntarily, and that would make a significant difference.
00:30:35.560 In short, Swedish health authorities viewed COVID as the equivalent of a severe flu, which could not be contained but only slowed and which would inevitably run its course.
00:30:44.940 Inevitably run its course.
00:30:46.280 The thing about running its course is that like we sort of know that that's not true, nor is that like really how the flu works, but whatever. 0.97
00:30:54.020 The authors of this book, as usual, with these like bold heterodox thinker books, is like they're too chicken shit to make their actual argument. 0.95
00:31:01.240 They're basically arguing for herd immunity. 0.96
00:31:03.020 Like all of these like the dissenters were criticized.
00:31:04.620 it's all people who were pushing for herd immunity.
00:31:07.560 But like we now know scientifically, like without a doubt,
00:31:10.220 herd immunity does not work, right?
00:31:11.580 Because there are variants and people can just get reinfected over and over again. 0.97
00:31:16.560 The other reason why the herd immunity shit was never going to work 0.96
00:31:19.000 is because it relies on like, oh, we can protect the vulnerable, right? 0.98
00:31:22.480 People with pre-existing conditions.
00:31:24.180 But 60% of Americans have one chronic condition or another, right?
00:31:27.580 If you look at things like diabetes.
00:31:29.460 I have turf toe right now.
00:31:31.060 but it's like you can't i mean none of these people are ever going to support actual measures
00:31:36.180 to protect vulnerable people but it's like if you look at quote unquote vulnerable people you're
00:31:39.840 talking about like 80 to 150 million people protecting those people requires exactly the
00:31:44.800 same kind of lockdowns we fucking did even if you're like all right we'll limit it to like
00:31:48.320 certain very specific conditions right like respiratory conditions uh etc people who are 0.97
00:31:54.100 immunocompromised in some in some way and then the elderly you're still looking at millions of
00:32:00.060 people that like, what, need to be isolated from society without the rest of society feeling it at
00:32:04.960 all? How? It always felt like that was this sort of like undeveloped policy solution, right? That
00:32:11.880 they didn't actually know how it would work. They were just like, I don't think that I need to be
00:32:16.440 doing this. They then say that despite this lack of restriction, despite, you know, giving their
00:32:22.220 citizens much more freedom, the Swedish experience is actually a case of what we should have done.
00:32:28.600 So here are the results.
00:32:32.060 This book is not a mystery novel, so at the risk of spoiling the surprise, at the end of June 2021, Sweden's excess morbidity for the period from January 2020 to the end of June 2021 was negative 2.3%.
00:32:44.960 That is, the country had overall no excess mortality, but rather less mortality than would be predicted based on previous year's figures.
00:32:52.460 This was also true of seven of the best-performing European countries, which included Sweden's Nordic neighbors.
00:32:59.060 So first of all, this narrative is roughly correct that the Swedish lockdown experience in March and April of 2020 was a lot lighter than other countries.
00:33:08.680 The thing that really set Sweden apart during this period is that they issued a ton of guidance, but nothing was mandatory.
00:33:15.340 They did close schools for kids over 17, but for younger kids, they never closed schools.
00:33:20.140 on March 18th, they told employers to let employees work from home. They're like,
00:33:25.760 we think you should do this. And they also told restaurants to like avoid overcrowding,
00:33:30.380 like only let in a certain number of people at a time. They told Swedes not to travel within
00:33:35.140 the country on March 18th. So they were telling people to do a lot of the things that other
00:33:39.660 countries were doing, but none of this was mandatory. So it was basically just like,
00:33:42.840 we think that you should do this. So that is really something that is very different about
00:33:47.360 Sweden. The main thing to know about Sweden's approach during this period was that it was an
00:33:53.700 abject failure. So in March and April of 2020, Sweden had the highest mortality rate in the
00:34:00.200 world from COVID as a percentage of their population. Their death rate was five times
00:34:05.100 higher than Denmark's, nine times higher than Finland's, and 11 and a half times higher than
00:34:10.140 Norway. It was also, this is really bleak, this is from one of the articles I read, it was also
00:34:13.980 25% higher than the USA. It's like they're like 12 times worse than Norway and like a little
00:34:20.740 worse than America. If you had put Cuomo in charge of one major city in Sweden, he would have wiped
00:34:26.040 those motherfuckers out. So what's wild about this whole kind of like recasting of Sweden's 0.99
00:34:31.400 approach as like secretly successful is like Sweden itself set up a COVID commission and they
00:34:37.060 issued a report that says that this was a failure. So it says pandemic measures were too few and too
00:34:43.340 late and the commission concluded that these should have been more extensive, particularly
00:34:47.060 during the first wave and considering the limited knowledge about COVID-19. And so things like
00:34:52.360 keeping businesses open, keeping public transit open, keeping schools open, resulted in a ton
00:34:57.700 of COVID spreading around the community, which eventually did get to older people. Like that is
00:35:02.100 one of the reasons why the death rate was so high. It says the high number of deaths among older
00:35:07.780 people in Sweden, especially during the first wave, was probably due to high overall viral
00:35:12.140 transmission in society. So even Sweden realized that this approach was a mistake. And so in June
00:35:18.100 of 2020, Sweden basically updated its approach. So this is an excerpt from an article called
00:35:24.060 How Sweden Approached the COVID-19 Pandemic. It says, during the second and third waves,
00:35:29.140 the government and its agencies launched several new and robust measures which they had previously
00:35:32.980 rejected or refrained from using to reduce the transmission of the virus. These included
00:35:36.900 restrictions in restaurants and commercial areas, household quarantine if a family member had COVID-19
00:35:41.600 and wearing face masks on public transit during rush hour.
00:35:44.380 The changes between the first and second waves were not based on any new knowledge.
00:35:48.120 Some measures in late autumn 2020 were initiated by the government rather than requested by
00:35:52.360 the public health authority.
00:35:53.500 These included no alcohol in restaurants and limits on the number of people allowed at
00:35:57.280 public gatherings.
00:35:58.220 So basically, after June of 2020, the practices among the Swedish population and the policies
00:36:04.140 of the Swedish government were not all that different from European countries.
00:36:07.560 The only period when Sweden's policies differed very significantly from other countries was the period when they had the highest death rate in the world.
00:36:18.740 Now, what I am what I don't understand is why these other countries had lockdowns at all without the evil mastermind Anthony Fauci, without him puppeteering at all.
00:36:30.220 So Anders Tegnell, the head of the public health agency, he writes a book.
00:36:33.780 Earlier this year, he gives an interview.
00:36:35.700 He says, the misconception is that Swedes haven't changed their lives because they really have.
00:36:40.020 Many work from home.
00:36:41.060 Restaurants were significantly less busy at all times.
00:36:43.400 People were no longer meeting indoors, but outdoors and traveling less.
00:36:46.340 If you walk down the streets in Stockholm, they were empty.
00:36:48.660 They didn't have mandatory, like statutory lockdowns, but people in Sweden restricted their activities. 0.82
00:36:54.540 That's what I was going to ask about because Europeans believe in society in a way that we don't.
00:37:00.280 So I was just sort of wondering, like, what was their behavior like? 0.98
00:37:03.620 Because that's what really dictates whether this stuff works, right?
00:37:06.440 The policy is sort of upstream of that, right?
00:37:09.740 Right.
00:37:09.980 And you can see that I'm sure that there are countries that had more aggressive policies
00:37:14.380 and fewer people adhering to those policies, which would also make the policies a sort
00:37:21.160 of a bad indicator of what works in a vacuum.
00:37:24.780 They actually mentioned this.
00:37:25.860 They're like, oh, actually, if you look at the data post June of 2020, and they're like, oh, well, they did restrict their movements.
00:37:32.200 They did restrict their activities just as much as everybody else.
00:37:34.600 But they had more freedom because it wasn't dictated by the government.
00:37:37.920 If this is sort of the strongest case that you can make is like, oh, people should have locked down.
00:37:42.600 Like people should have stayed home, but the government shouldn't have mandated it.
00:37:46.340 Right, right.
00:37:46.840 OK, what are we really talking about here then? 1.00
00:37:49.200 See, now we're no longer talking about something that political science professors are too stupid to understand. 1.00
00:37:55.140 And now we're talking about something that's so stupid that only a political science professor could think that it's important. 0.99
00:38:00.700 So then we have to talk about their weird thing where they say that Sweden had less mortality than the previous year. 0.88
00:38:09.900 So again, the book says Sweden's excess mortality for the period from January 2020 to the end of June 2021 was negative 2.3%.
00:38:17.880 That is, the country had no overall excess mortality, but rather less mortality than would have been predicted based on previous year's figures.
00:38:25.760 This was also true of seven of the best performing European countries, which included Sweden's Nordic neighbors.
00:38:31.340 And so their footnote for this leads to a book called The Herd by a Swedish journalist named Johan Norberg,
00:38:38.500 who kind of bafflingly is citing a study from the UK Office of National Statistics,
00:38:43.820 which during the pandemic would release these periodic reports of like, what is excess death
00:38:48.220 doing around the world kind of as these numbers became available? And it is true that Sweden has
00:38:53.800 a excess mortality at that time in June of 2021 overall of negative 2.3%. That part is true. 1.00
00:39:00.400 However, if you actually go to the citation, Sweden has the worst excess mortality of any
00:39:05.100 Nordic country. So it's negative 2.3% in Sweden. It's negative 7.9% in Finland, negative 8.3% in
00:39:12.560 Denmark and negative 12% in Norway. So I have no idea what is going on with these numbers. I have
00:39:18.780 not seen these numbers in other places. I think it's something with the ONS's specific methodology
00:39:23.480 on calculating excess deaths. But even in their own source, Sweden is doing the worst out of any
00:39:30.780 Nordic country. My initial instinct would have been that you would see fewer excess deaths in
00:39:36.640 other regards, like things like car accidents are going to plummet, right? Yeah, that's most of the
00:39:40.640 explanation other types of diseases are gonna are gonna plummet yeah flu flu basically disappeared
00:39:44.640 for like two winters yeah they're just latching on to a stray statistic it's also just so bizarre
00:39:50.900 to cite a book which is citing a uk report which he doesn't even link to in the footnotes of that
00:39:57.580 book i'd like go truffle hunting for it when there are dozens of studies on this like the the world
00:40:04.780 of academia and epidemiology are very interested in outcomes in Sweden. And so if you look up
00:40:11.120 numbers from Statistics Sweden, which is exactly what it sounds like, Sweden had around 7,000
00:40:18.100 excess deaths in 2020, around 1,000 excess deaths in 2021, and around 4,000 excess deaths in 2022.
00:40:25.560 It is not the case that excess deaths overall went down during the pandemic. It's an utterly
00:40:31.020 bizarre hill to die on. It just isn't true. And I have no idea what's going on with this ONS
00:40:36.960 study. Told you what's going on. Political scientists run wild. Look, these guys can't
00:40:41.900 even figure out why Trump won. You think they can figure out fucking COVID? No, go, go analyze some 0.99
00:40:48.560 polls, bitch. So just slightly steel man their argument, because this is an argument that goes 1.00
00:40:52.480 around a lot, is that if you look at the entire duration of the pandemic, Sweden is not actually
00:40:56.500 that much worse than the other Nordic countries. And that's actually true. So if you look at the 0.51
00:41:00.360 four Nordic countries, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway. Sweden is like in the middle of the pack
00:41:04.860 if you look at all of 2020, 2021, and 2022. However, this kind of ignores like, I think,
00:41:11.380 important nuance. So even though it's like it looks less bad, if you look at the entire course
00:41:15.600 of the pandemic, Sweden still has 36% higher death rate than Denmark. Like that does matter. 0.99
00:41:21.520 Yeah. The real outlier in Scandinavia is Finland. Finland had 190 deaths per 100,000. Sweden had 117.
00:41:27.500 So Finland did way worse than Sweden overall, if you look at the full course of the pandemic.
00:41:31.300 However, Finland apparently really fucked up their vaccine rollout and they had a really
00:41:34.940 bad Omicron wave.
00:41:36.280 So for them, the year 2021 and 2022 were just like when most of their deaths were concentrated.
00:41:41.200 They did lockdowns and they had many fewer deaths during the lockdowns.
00:41:44.820 Yeah.
00:41:44.920 Those are just different things.
00:41:46.320 You can't just say like Finland has more deaths than Sweden and therefore lockdowns
00:41:50.600 don't work.
00:41:51.300 You have to look at the specifics.
00:41:52.400 So you have basically two months where they had a laxer policy approach.
00:42:00.080 Those two months see a ton more COVID deaths than comparable countries.
00:42:06.480 And then the policies between these countries start to align a little bit as Sweden sort
00:42:12.180 of cracks down.
00:42:13.580 Yeah. 1.00
00:42:13.760 I'm surprised that Sweden takes up such a large part of the mental space of the sort
00:42:20.180 of like covid denialists and and their uh and people who are sort of sort of covid denial
00:42:25.640 adjacent because it just doesn't i'm not seeing it right there's there there's not i guess the
00:42:30.620 fact that it like oh they overall had decent pandemic numbers is maybe what people are uh
00:42:36.580 hanging their hat on a bit here but it seems to me and like maybe this is the only part of this
00:42:41.540 little rant that you can use but so i guess what you're saying is that just ignore all that i guess
00:42:48.480 what you're saying is that to the extent that Sweden had decent numbers at the end of the
00:42:54.880 pandemic, that was in spite of the fact that they had like, you know, these sort of laxer policies
00:43:01.720 in the early phase. And then the other thing about Sweden that I really want to mention
00:43:06.300 is that, you know, the whole point of these policies, right, is like we shouldn't do a
00:43:10.000 lockdown. It's going to cause all of these costs, right? We're balancing economic growth. Think
00:43:15.740 about how bad it's going to be for economic growth when we shut down all of our businesses,
00:43:18.980 right? Keep kids home from school, et cetera. Think about how bad it's going to be.
00:43:21.620 Sweden also had a fucking massive economic crash during the pandemic. 0.98
00:43:25.420 This is the conclusion from an economics paper about Denmark versus Sweden. Denmark is an 0.99
00:43:31.780 interesting case because it had like a very strict lockdown and pretty early. So Denmark and Sweden
00:43:36.980 are like a really interesting case study of like countries with similar cultures, similar economies,
00:43:41.420 and one was like on the strict end of the spectrum and one was on the lax end of the spectrum. So
00:43:45.020 here are the economic effects. Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic,
00:43:49.580 but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate
00:43:54.260 that aggregate spending dropped by around 25 percent in Sweden and as a result of the shutdown
00:43:59.460 by four additional percentage points in Denmark. So that's what mass death buys you is four points
00:44:07.360 of demand. Right, right. Wow. And we still would have lost 25 percent. One thing that I feel like
00:44:13.020 gets glossed over is that although there was obviously a loss of economic activity the response
00:44:20.500 was massive government stimulus that like largely worked and because of that there was no massive
00:44:29.340 recession or depression in 2020 i think a lot of these discussions get boxed in by this sort of
00:44:36.920 like assumption that like this was a massive sacrifice from just a pure economic perspective
00:44:44.280 which is not totally wrong because a lot of people were hit very hard but it also needs to be
00:44:51.900 qualified with the idea that like we did manage our way out of this yeah it was more it was more
00:44:58.180 generous than uh any western european country yeah kind of accidentally we sort of like didn't 0.99
00:45:02.340 really know what we were doing but it's fucking great we just like gave unemployed people a shit
00:45:05.960 load of money and like the savings rate went up during that period like yeah you can just throw 0.81
00:45:10.400 money at problems and not all problems obviously but like a lot of problems become far less severe
00:45:15.960 when you just throw a shit load of money at them and there's actually i'm skipping it because like
00:45:20.560 it feels like i'm like dunking on this book too much but they have a whole section about public
00:45:24.500 debt yeah about like oh the cost of the pandemic we you know look at all the deficit spending it's
00:45:28.800 gonna ruin the children for generations and it's like should we not have done that should we not
00:45:32.740 of like giving people money when they had to stay home like this is just completely sociopathic to 1.00
00:45:37.260 me ludwig von meises you are absolutely cooked bro bitch made bitch made the term that i learned 0.99
00:45:44.500 from watching temptation island it feels to me like they're doing the same thing that like rfk 0.99
00:45:50.600 does which is sort of like yeah a lot of people dying except they're old and sick right yeah yeah 0.99
00:45:57.380 And who gives a shit, right? 0.98
00:45:59.340 They say that basically expressly here, right? 0.99
00:46:02.460 Yeah. 0.94
00:46:02.600 I mean, it says it was the very old sick and frail who were at serious risk.
00:46:06.140 And it's like, yeah. 0.99
00:46:07.280 And those are people, right? 0.62
00:46:09.520 But also, I mean, I also looked this up because it drove me so fucking nuts reading this.
00:46:13.060 It's true that COVID is not like a major threat to like very young people, right?
00:46:17.100 There's only been 1,500 deaths of people under 18 throughout the pandemic. 1.00
00:46:21.500 I mean, you say only about children's deaths and you sound like a fucking monster. 0.98
00:46:24.080 But like compared to 1.2 million deaths, right, a very small percentage of them have been children. 0.98
00:46:28.500 But also once you get into sort of 35 years old, in 2021, COVID was the second leading cause of
00:46:35.360 death for 35 to 44 year olds. It was 16,000 people died of COVID. This was in 2021, right,
00:46:40.420 after a lot of people had already been vaccinated. For 45 to 54 year olds, it was the number one
00:46:45.540 cause of death. And if you look over the course of the whole pandemic, we had 200,000 deaths of
00:46:50.320 people between 50 and 64 years old so it's not just like oh if you're over 85 you're gonna die
00:46:56.120 and everybody else is like super safe no i mean middle-aged people like my age there's still an 0.99
00:47:01.680 elevated risk of death from covet this this they're doing this fucking chicken shit thing 1.00
00:47:06.680 they're like oh well young people oh it's not bad for young people fine for fucking infants or like 0.99
00:47:10.460 people under five or whatever yeah the risks are lower but like there's a spectrum of risk they 1.00
00:47:15.140 They can't even find right wing virologists to write this shit. 0.99
00:47:19.300 They act like it doesn't matter. 0.99
00:47:21.320 And in fact, we've made the mistake of being too snobby about this stuff.
00:47:26.240 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 0.97
00:47:26.800 That like listening to public health officials rather than some dipshit was the mistake we made. 0.98
00:47:32.600 Right. 0.93
00:47:32.840 Lefties were too condescending to people early in the pandemic just because they were wrong
00:47:37.200 and lying and unqualified.
00:47:38.980 Right.
00:47:39.220 Have you thought about that?
00:47:40.320 Have you thought about your mistakes?
00:47:41.640 Well, yes.
00:47:42.640 And they're not really very meaningful mistakes.
00:47:44.940 Yeah, my mistakes rule, okay? 0.98
00:47:48.480 If we're going to have a sort of 2020 hindsight conversation about like, what did we fuck
00:47:52.960 up in this period of the pandemic?
00:47:54.760 Yeah.
00:47:54.980 The actual failures were that we didn't lock down early enough because COVID spreads exponentially,
00:48:00.420 right?
00:48:00.660 Two becomes four, becomes eight, becomes 16.
00:48:03.020 Even like one day early for lockdowns can prevent like hundreds or thousands of cases
00:48:08.200 further down the line.
00:48:09.440 Yeah.
00:48:10.000 And that's very clearly what the data shows too, that for a lot of states and counties,
00:48:14.340 you had cases on this kind of upward exponential trajectory. And the minute the stay-at-home
00:48:19.940 orders come down, you see it like dramatically turn to the right, literally flatten the curve.
00:48:25.100 Like that is what happened after the stay-at-home orders came down. So one study says,
00:48:30.380 compared to counties that did not implement stay-at-home orders, the results show that
00:48:33.980 the orders are associated with a 30% average reduction in weekly cases after one week,
00:48:38.720 a 40% reduction after two weeks, and a 49% reduction after three weeks.
00:48:44.340 Stay-at-home orders are also associated with a 60% average reduction in weekly fatalities
00:48:49.260 after three weeks.
00:48:50.560 So these did have dramatic effects.
00:48:54.160 And sort of the caveat that you always have to give with these is that they are associations,
00:48:58.020 right?
00:48:58.260 After the stay-at-home orders came down, we saw a reduction in cases.
00:49:01.900 That doesn't necessarily mean that it is causal and people may have locked down anyway.
00:49:06.800 There's some evidence that people were starting to stay home and avoid bars and restaurants, et cetera, before the mandatory stay-at-home orders came down.
00:49:14.100 The problem with that is that a lot of other measures had happened before we had stay-at-home orders, right?
00:49:19.720 A lot of states had already closed schools.
00:49:22.300 A lot of employers had already told people to work from home.
00:49:24.480 Trump had already issued that guidance that was basically please stay home and people weren't doing it.
00:49:29.240 And so in analyses of this period that look at all of the different interventions and what was the most effective, they find that stay-at-home orders were the most effective because like you couldn't go out and do things, right?
00:49:41.140 You can't rely on the population to just like voluntarily not leave the house for weeks on end.
00:49:46.480 I mean, we knew, we were aware that COVID was spreading in other parts of the world in like January, February, right?
00:49:54.020 Yeah. And, you know, I don't think that that is like when we should have locked down. But had we, it would have worked.
00:50:01.780 Well, yeah. Right. It would it would have been very effective.
00:50:04.260 I mean, this this does kind of get back to the the failures of this period, the actual failures for this.
00:50:10.420 I also read The Plague Year by Lawrence Wright, which is really interesting and is basically exactly what it sounds like.
00:50:15.580 It's just like, OK, what happened in 2020? And, you know, one of the core arguments of this book is that, you know, all we looked at was public health indicators.
00:50:23.620 We weren't looking at the economy.
00:50:25.140 We weren't looking at this broader range of indicators.
00:50:27.160 Most of America's failures during that time come from too much fealty, too economic indicators.
00:50:33.480 It is very clear from what was going on behind the scenes that Trump did not want to lock
00:50:37.080 down because he was afraid that it would crater the economy. 0.97
00:50:39.580 Fucking Cuomo didn't want to lock down because it would crater the economy. 0.98
00:50:42.100 That's the main reason our response was so bad and people waited so long to lock down 0.99
00:50:46.540 was to save the economy.
00:50:48.380 Again, just like they're lying to your face, not only about what happened, but about the
00:50:52.480 reasons why it happened. This is the thing is like the like economies are interconnected,
00:50:56.700 right? You couldn't have just maintained your country's economic status quo because other
00:51:04.360 countries were shutting down. You rely on imports, right? Yeah. The idea that there was like a clean
00:51:08.300 trade where it's like, yeah, there's like a little more COVID spread, but everything else stays the
00:51:14.520 same. Ridiculous. The other I mean, the other thing that they're totally misrepresenting is 0.97
00:51:17.840 like, oh, public health experts don't consider the trade-offs. But that 2019 WHO document that
00:51:23.240 they cited, the entire purpose of that document was to consider trade-offs. That's the point,
00:51:28.100 is like cost versus benefits. So in that document, the WHO does not recommend contact tracing because
00:51:34.040 it's too expensive. These institutions are also, like, they're not far leftist agitprop, right?
00:51:39.640 These are also relatively conservative institutions who have taken on this kind of everything has to
00:51:44.460 be dollars and cents. Everything has to be return on investment cost benefit kind of analysis.
00:51:48.980 The thing that I that really pisses me off is these people do not have the balls to be like, 0.98
00:51:53.900 I think that 50,000 more deaths would have been worth not having to wear masks. 0.98
00:51:59.400 That is actually what they think. It's the obvious implication of what they're saying,
00:52:02.400 but they don't have the balls to say it. It's also emblematic of the way that they 0.98
00:52:05.420 they overlook the actual failures because kind of the point of the shutdowns was to give the
00:52:12.460 government time, right, was to get PPE, to get a testing infrastructure in place so that we could
00:52:18.420 reopen. And that was like the abject failure of the Trump administration was to do anything
00:52:23.460 with those two months, right? They completely left states on their own. Governors were bidding
00:52:27.720 against each other. There was a thing where Charlie Baker ordered a bunch of masks from
00:52:31.760 China and then FEMA fucking stole it like on the runway. Like Trump completely sabotaged 0.98
00:52:36.980 this entire period. The one thing that Lawrence Wright mentions in his book is that the CDC did
00:52:42.240 not have a press conference for three months for the first three months of the pandemic because
00:52:45.600 trump wouldn't let them well but he was having the like sunlight in your veins press conference
00:52:51.320 at the time promoting uh ultraviolet beams as a cure for covid in like march april that was the 0.73
00:52:57.720 funniest fucking phase of the pandemic where you can like watch his brain work where he's like
00:53:04.400 what kills the virus and they're like it doesn't seem to be able to survive uh ultraviolet light 0.99
00:53:09.720 And he's like, perfect.
00:53:11.040 We'll get that.
00:53:11.700 We'll get them in the body.
00:53:12.840 I read this whole book. 0.89
00:53:13.580 And then I just to double check, I control F'd.
00:53:16.380 There's no criticism of Trump in this entire book.
00:53:18.940 Oh, my God.
00:53:19.780 Every once in a while, they'll say like the left accuses him of failures like they did
00:53:22.540 with the climate change denial stuff where like the left says this.
00:53:25.400 But it's like, OK, well, do those claims have any merit?
00:53:27.720 Do you want to like look at that at all?
00:53:29.560 Yeah, yeah.
00:53:29.980 You're you're misinforming people about the problems in the pandemic.
00:53:33.180 There was not leftist overreach like that's just incorrect that there was like public
00:53:36.820 health leftist overreach. 0.98
00:53:37.800 The actual failures were from the fucking deranged weirdo we had running the government at the time. 0.98
00:53:42.660 And not to mention, like, Trump's running interference against the public health officials, right? 0.97
00:53:48.180 So, like, in this book, complaining about how public health officials have too much power might be worth noting that the president of the United States was undermining them in various material respects.
00:53:59.240 Look, he's just the person running the country.
00:54:01.160 We're not going to spend any time on this guy.
00:54:02.600 I don't know where the causation is going. 1.00
00:54:04.700 Are these people dumb or does taking these positions rot the brain? 1.00
00:54:09.860 Yeah, I know, I know. 1.00
00:54:10.660 Eat away at your fucking neurological function to the point where you can't even read basic 0.99
00:54:16.860 data, data that is central to the point you're making. 0.98
00:54:20.880 So we're going to talk much more next episode about everything that happened after the lockdown's
00:54:25.680 lifted, the pre-vaccine period, the post-vaccine period.
00:54:28.720 There's a lot more to go over.
00:54:29.880 But for now, we're going to close with a excerpt from their conclusion.
00:54:35.260 A fundamental error of COVID policy was to accord too much power to public health experts with a predictably narrow set of professional concerns and expertise, as well as perspectives shaped by comfortable upper middle class material conditions.
00:54:47.820 There's a real lack of software that's going on here.
00:54:49.600 I'm at Princeton. I'm really against these eggheads, these elite eggheads.
00:54:52.600 Slogans like follow the science turned complex, practical and moral choices among policy alternatives into simplistic attempts to predict effects on a narrow range of outcomes.
00:55:01.180 Public deliberation was severely hampered by the unwillingness of many political leaders, journalists and academics to ask and demand answers to hard questions involving difficult tradeoffs.
00:55:11.000 The problem of elites hubristically deciding that they know better than everyone else is as old as democracy. 0.86
00:55:16.420 what were we supposed to fucking vote on mask mandates or something like what national referendum 0.96
00:55:23.020 what are you fucking talking about and by the way it would have won also it's not hubris for 0.98
00:55:27.240 experts to give their expertise that's not it's like i know about nuclear physics therefore i can 0.99
00:55:32.320 tell you about nuclear physics that's not hubris that's like basic fucking human functioning also 0.81
00:55:36.580 sorry but these these people were put into place by elect democratically elected officials right 0.97
00:55:42.540 the idea that this was like done by a fucking cabal of experts who by the way by the way what 0.96
00:55:50.140 do we fucking have these people for if not to give us a little bit of guidance during this once in a 0.98
00:55:56.860 century event right it comes and they're like you should wear masks and uh stay away from each other 0.98
00:56:02.320 to the best of your ability and these people are like this is the hubris of these experts what are 0.72
00:56:06.920 you fucking talking about wait wait wait wait wait i just heard i just remembered something 0.80
00:56:10.080 hang on but i actually want you to end with okay so this is this is what they're recommending 0.99
00:56:14.020 instead of what we actually did in 2020 what was most needed was critical thinking as health
00:56:20.300 ethicist ari joff puts it an effortful pause the uk's official covet inquiry has recommended that
00:56:28.860 in future crises there be both red teams groups of dissenting non-experts trained in critical 0.97
00:56:34.680 thinking as well as far wider range of expertise brought to bear yeah yeah what about the dumb 0.99
00:56:41.480 asses we haven't heard from dumb asses i love the idea of having a group of dissenters don't so like 0.99
00:56:47.160 you can't have them prepared in advance because you don't know what they're dissenting against 0.99
00:56:50.080 right so you basically get a bunch of experts together and then no matter what they conclude
00:56:56.200 you pull together a bunch of people who disagree whose disagreement is a qualification that's the
00:57:01.320 only qualification no there's two qualifications the other qualification is that they are not
00:57:05.600 experts also i love trained in critical thinking yeah i've been honing my mind yeah my generally
00:57:13.620 we have a debate between a public health expert and 50 sam harris's just you know i can logic my
00:57:18.520 way through this anthony fauci that was an interesting presentation what is uh the least
00:57:23.740 famous political science professor at princeton have to say about this
00:57:27.180 I'll see you then.