00:04:51.820And the reason was that as soon as you replace all of the Amazon with a different type of vegetation, let's say grass, the interaction between grass covered land and the atmosphere will be very different from the interactions of a tropical forest with the atmosphere.
00:05:16.180Basically, the tropical forest is a very potent vegetation to draw water deep down with a very deep rooting system, several meters, 5, 6, 10 meter depth rooting systems.
00:05:37.020So draw water from depth and then bring the water to the leaves and transpire that water.
00:05:44.560all year round. So, during the dry season in the Amazon, the forest is pumping terrific amount
00:05:54.560of water. So, it wets up the lower atmosphere and that helps to produce the elements for rainfall.
00:06:06.440So, in most of the Amazon, if you measure transpiration of the forest, it's higher during the dry season than during the wet season.
00:06:19.480Just the opposite, what grass would be doing.
00:06:24.140Grass has short roots, and during the dry season, it enters senescence.
00:06:31.780It really almost shuts down transpiring water.
00:06:39.540So in sum, our study at that time really predicted that replacement of the tropical forest by grass would lead to less rain in the Amazon.
00:06:54.540In that initial calculation, we said rainfall in the Amazon might decline up to 25 percent.
00:07:03.200Of course, there has set off a very large number of research studies, many field experiments.
00:07:13.440The most important one I was very involved with, it's called Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon from 1998 even to date.
00:07:25.540It's still going on. You know, hundreds of scientists went to the Amazon, studied very in detail these interactions between the forest and the atmosphere between areas where forest was replaced.
00:07:38.860So we have a very good understanding on this forest atmosphere interactions today. And indeed, there is much less water recycling when you when you replace the forest.
00:07:52.700So basically, many studies have shown there is a very high risk of much less or significantly less rainfall if you replace the forest.
00:08:04.980So that's really what is driving this hyvanization hypothesis or what might happen if we deforest the Amazon.
00:08:15.660Of course, that was the initial result. Since the year 2000, I've been involved in trying to see what would be the thresholds, what would lead to the savanization. Some people call it forest dieback.
00:08:30.680I call it savannization because the equilibrium vegetation that might replace the forest is the tropical savannas.
00:08:41.280Tropical savannas, there is something like 2.5 million square kilometers of tropical savannas in tropical South America,
00:08:49.660mostly in Brazil, but also in Bolivia, Venezuela.
00:08:52.160And so that would be equilibrium vegetation that is consistent with less rainfall and also with very pronounced dry seasons.
00:09:07.420In the Amazon, dry season is very short. It's not more than three months. In the central Brazil, in the savannah-dominated area, dry season is four, five, up to six months.
00:09:20.380So then, you know, we also discover that savannas in the Amazon would be stable with this new climate.
00:09:33.020So if the Amazon becomes a savanna, it will become a savanna for a long time because the rainfall will decline.
00:09:41.520So more consistent with a savanna-like climate envelope, as we call it.
00:09:47.940Longer dry season, four, five, six months dry season, typical savanna dry seasons, and also a very important element.
00:09:56.940And savannas have evolved over millions of years, tens of millions of years, to be fire
00:11:18.460What level of deforestation might lead to this savanization?
00:11:24.120With a student of mine, Sampaio, we published a paper in 2007 in which we made the first, we put out the first assessment.
00:11:36.640That is, if only deforestation is in the play, only deforestation, there is no global warming or no effect of fire, forest fires, only deforestation, we came to this figure.
00:11:51.42040 percent of deforestation was the threshold. If we transgressed 40 percent of the total forest area to become pasture, let's say, then that would lead to a regional climate change towards a drier climate, less rainfall and longer dry season.
00:12:15.520And that's very compatible with the savannah. So then we picked our first figure, which is 40 percent as a tipping point, only considering deforestation.
00:12:30.620Then with another student, Salazar, also in 2007, we made calculations what would be the
00:12:42.140If we did not have any deforestation, the forest was there, preserved, but we have climate
00:12:47.940change due to global warming impacting the Amazon, and it does impact severely the Amazon,
00:12:54.140what would be the thresholds for climate global warming?
00:12:58.500And then, of course, the way global warming operates is that global warming changes tropical circulations, the important tropical atmospheric circulations, which provide the climate as we know in the tropics over the Amazon.
00:13:15.200And the global warming, if we exceed a certain threshold in global warming, there will be very large and very large scale changes in the global tropical circulations.
00:13:31.280We have a name for those circulations.
00:13:33.460They are called Hadley-Walker circulations.
00:14:08.140And the desert belt around the globe, let's say Mexico, southern U.S., let's say Patagonia, and Africa, Sahel, and China, all are in this desert belt associated with this Hadley circulation.
00:14:26.500And also, we have this so-called Walker circulation, which is very similar to Hadley, but they are not north-south circulations.
00:14:38.000For instance, we have a lot of rainfall over the Amazon and over Indonesia, and that there is ascending air over those two areas and descending air over central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which is a very dry area.
00:14:54.080So, global warming changes the nature of these circulations. It makes these circulations much stronger over the ocean, over the Pacific, over the Atlantic, and the end effect is less rain over the Amazon.
00:15:11.620So basically what climate change scenarios indicated for the Amazon, for most of the Amazon, except the western most part of the Amazon near the Andes, they show a decline in rainfall, sufficient decline to change the vegetation to a savanna.
00:15:33.820So again, a second tipping point. And if only global warming is operating, there is no deforestation. We came up to this calculation that four degrees warming in the Amazon, which associated hydrological changes.
00:15:52.820So it's not only a temperature effect. Of course, temperature also affects the tree distribution. Very high temperature are not consistent with most tropical species in the Amazon. But our calculation look both at temperature extremes, but also at hydrological changes and particularly this reduction of rainfall and the increasing length of the dry season.
00:16:20.460So then we got this four degrees threshold for global warming in the Amazon and the associated hydrological changes, meaning less rainfall, longer dry season.
00:16:32.840So we came up with these two tipping points.
00:16:36.460And then in 2016, we looked at if we put all those things together, basically looking at what might happen if all those things would be happening as they are simultaneously.
00:16:49.760So we made a calculation in which there is deforestation, there is global warming, and one additional effect, which is the increase in forest fires.
00:17:03.120Tropical forests, they are very much, you know, in normal states, they are impenetrable to fire because they are very wet.
00:17:12.920Even if there is a lightning-generated fire to ignite a fire, the forest is so wet that the fire does not propagate except for a few tens or perhaps a hundred, 150 meters.
00:17:29.980So the forest evolved without fire, by and large.
00:17:35.520Very exceptionally, there are a large-scale fire in the Amazon.
00:17:39.340However, with drying out, with roads, with deforestation, with this patchy mosaic form of land use change, so you really make the forest much more vulnerable to fire.
00:17:58.640Because you have less biomass, you have much more solar radiation penetrating, drying out the litter over on the top of the forest floor.
00:18:15.940And we are seeing that more and more and more all the time.
00:18:21.520You know, forest fires in the Amazon are something happening every year with higher frequency.
00:18:28.720So we also factor in our calculations what would be the effect of increased forest fires, how forest fires reduces the increases vulnerability of forests versus savanna.
00:18:48.680So when we put all these factors together, then we concluded that given the current trends of global warming, we would be on the safe side if deforestation does not exceed 20 to 25 percent.
00:19:10.540And we published that in last February, an editorial in Scientific Advances, just to really to draw attention, worldwide attention, that we might not be very far from that tipping point.
00:19:28.020total deforestation in the Amazon basin is about 16, 17 percent. So we, in our calculations,
00:19:37.020we have this range 20, 25 percent of total deforestation. And of course, this is because
00:19:45.760we have at the same time, simultaneously, we have global warming. The temperature over the Amazon
00:19:51.660forest is about 1 to 1.5 degrees warmer today than, let's say, 80 years ago, when we started
00:20:00.200having the first temperature measurements in the Amazon. And also, as I mentioned, forest fires are
00:20:10.140much more frequent, perhaps three, five times, up to 10 times more frequent than they used to be
00:20:17.100only in a natural setting with lightning strikes, ignating fire.
00:20:24.160So that, in sum, is our conclusion today.
00:20:29.480That's why we decided to draw attention that we might not be that far from a tipping point
00:20:35.940with 20, 25 percent Amazon total deforestation.
00:20:42.340And that's why we are calling for a zero deforestation policy for the Amazon to be reached as soon as possible.
00:21:12.340For many of us, we want to compartmentalize the issues.
00:21:39.920we want to ask well what poses a greater risk is it deforestation is it temperature change is it
00:21:46.560politics you know we're we're i think we're not taught how these complexities weave together and
00:21:53.060so to hear from you that it's not just one threat it's how these threats play into one another like
00:22:01.940i think about the fact that global warming and climate change is creating these more severe
00:22:08.180weather patterns which then is creating less rainfall in areas that are typically very wet
00:22:14.120and then you add deforestation on top of that which then releases carbon into the atmosphere
00:22:18.720accelerates climate change and also dries out the soil which then totally messes up the forest
00:22:25.760hydrology let alone the fact that the trees aren't calling the water in from the ocean
00:22:29.740so it really is compounding it's these tipping points feed off one another and i think that's
00:22:36.060really important for us to understand when we're trying to have a comprehensive understanding of
00:22:41.040the situation. And I feel like that's missing so much in science and so much in the misinformation
00:22:46.980of the media is that we're not hearing the comprehensiveness of these studies and these
00:22:53.020understandings of why ecosystems are collapsing in the way they are. So I'm very grateful that
00:23:00.380you have looked into all of the intricacies and are helping so many of us really learn
00:23:07.900why the Amazon is so threatened right now and I want to talk about another threat that I kind of
00:23:16.040briefly touched on and I know that at the beginning of 2018 you and your colleague Thomas Lovejoy
00:23:22.680stated that not only does further deforestation need to be curbed but a margin of safety against
00:23:28.920the tipping points must be implemented. However, since then, Jair Bolsonaro became Brazil's new
00:23:36.980president, and Bolsonaro has been outspoken about his desire to end Brazil's environmental ministry.
00:23:44.860And within a day of taking office, he actually signed an executive order transferring the
00:23:50.240regulation and creation of indigenous reserves to the Ministry of Agriculture, which seems to be a
00:23:57.020clear nod to big agribusiness. So I'm curious if you believe this presidency poses a genuine
00:24:04.100threat to Amazonia and what are the global consequences of this election? I prefer to
00:24:11.900go back a little bit this. I don't think it's only this particular government and not only
00:24:19.180in Brazil. What we are seeing, I guess, it's, let's say, the very strong agribusiness sector
00:24:31.120in the Amazonian countries' economy is very powerful economic and very powerful and very
00:24:37.640important economic sector in Brazil, but also in Bolivia, in all Amazonian countries. Perhaps
00:24:45.900The Amazon portion of those countries is more important in Brazil and Bolivia compared to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Venezuela and Kianas.
00:24:55.060But this sector, they've been fighting very powerfully, economically and politically as well, for several years to, let's say, to lift any environmental legislation that would put controls on the pace of deforestation.
00:25:22.700So let's say the election of the current Brazilian president is not the only isolated fact.
00:25:32.300I mean, this in Brazil in particular, in 2012, the Brazilian Congress approved of a
00:25:40.420flexibilization of the forest that really unleashed a process that is to expand deforestation.
00:25:49.960Of course, we did not see that happening immediately after the new legislation was approved by Congress, 2012, 13, 14 years, or lower deforestation, lowest in 30 years.
00:26:05.980However, the deforestation rates started to increase in 2015, 16, 17, and very likely 18.
00:26:16.220So basically, I think, you know, the current president, environmental policies really follow very much what we are seeing over the last five years.
00:26:29.520It's not something only that everything was going very well and now there is these completely different ideas.
00:26:37.220I think he just is going to, he's trying at least to give much more muscle to a policy which is going on for several years.
00:26:52.120And it's the policy that, let's say, fought back that very successful policy that Brazil and all Amazonian countries, in fact, had from, let's say, 2005 all the way to 2013, 2014.
00:27:08.120So it's kind of, you know, a swing back to the old idea that there is no better use of the Amazon than to replace the forest by grazing land for beef or for soy.
00:27:26.280So this is, let's say, a moment in the Amazonian country's history that we thought belonged to the past, but now it's the present.
00:27:36.620So it's the dominance of this economic sector, which great representation in Congress, in all these Amazonian countries, the agribusiness sector is represented in large quantities in Brazil until the last legislature.
00:27:59.760Something like 30% of the congressmen and women belong to this rural, as they call rural caucus. So they are very powerful politically. And I think, you know, this new government in Brazil really made that completely transparent and open.
00:28:20.300Now it's it's they defend that kind of model openly until last year.
00:28:27.360In fact, I mean, the legislation was being becoming more flexible, more flexible in that direction to open up not only the Amazon,
00:28:36.480but also the savannas in central Brazil, to big, big, large-scale, industrial-scale agribusiness
00:28:44.520and replacing the original biomes with soy and mostly grazing land for beef.
00:28:53.200So, yes, the risks are there, and we are, all of us, are very concerned.
00:29:03.380On the other hand, not to sound too optimistic, but this president was elected with a majority of people who hoped that he would or he will really take Brazil out of economic recession.
00:29:23.400Brazil has 12 million unemployed people, largest unemployed rates in many, many, many decades.
00:29:31.980And Brazil is one of the most violent countries in the world, urban and rural violent.
00:29:42.260So also people who voted for this president also hope that he will be able to reduce urban violence and also put Brazil back on economic growth trajectory to generate income and jobs.
00:30:03.540However, in a democracy, we have really to pay attention that for over 20 years, always in any public opinion poll, over 90 percent of Brazilians are very strongly against Amazon deforestation.
00:30:22.760So if we think that Brazil is a democracy and eventually this president and his ministers will have to start paying some attention back to what the population wants.
00:30:37.420The population of Brazil is very strongly against a development model which reduces the Amazon forest, which cuts down the forest, which leads to forest devastation.
00:30:50.440And really, there is very little economic reasons to do it, because the productivity of agriculture in the Amazon is very low.
00:31:04.780The productivity of cattle raising in the Amazon is unbelievably low.
00:31:10.180It's less than one head of cattle per hectare, 10,000 square meters.
00:31:16.020This is one of the lowest in the world.
00:31:18.880This is really against even good economic sense.
00:31:23.680It does not make economic sense to have such a low productivity.
00:31:28.460Also, even soil productivities, which are higher in central Brazil, in the savannah areas, still is way below the potential of productivity.
00:31:38.640So, the more modern, the more organized agribusiness in Brazil stopped really calling for irreversible drive towards the forest or the savannas.
00:31:54.180They are really calling for intensification of agriculture.
00:31:59.400And some of these groups also talk about sustainable intensification of agriculture.
00:32:04.920So I might say we are in a moment that if we believe democracy will prevail, then eventually the popular reaction against open deforestation policies, as it appears to be looking at one week of government after it was sworn in a few days ago, might change.
00:32:32.620I think, you know, the reaction against pro-deforestation policy in the Amazon will be very strong in Brazil because the population does not want that.
00:32:44.020And eventually, this government will also pay attention to the more modern agribusiness sector, which does not also want to really to move along those policies.
00:32:57.940And so, but of course, I mean, this is an optimistic view.
00:33:02.420We have to carefully monitor, follow every measure, policy measure, and then to monitor what will be the end result of that.
00:33:16.960Gosh, there is so much in that last response that is swirling through my head.
00:33:21.780I think a lot about what we're told up here in North America, specifically the United States,
00:33:29.360about cattle grazing, beef production. I feel like there's a lot more activists that are saying
00:33:36.360don't eat beef because carbon pollution and deforestation of the Amazon, but then maybe
00:33:43.820they're not looking at soy products. And just becoming vegan or vegetarian and eating soy
00:33:51.440isn't the answer either when that's also this great cause for deforestation and then on top
00:33:57.560of that to learn that it's not even that productive is really you know it's not honestly
00:34:03.460not even shocking because I see this constantly throughout this global capitalist system where
00:34:09.700it doesn't even matter if things are efficient to an extent as long as somebody is making money at
00:34:15.380the end of the day and I think that really fits into what you're saying about the crime issue it's
00:34:20.780this catch-22 because many times crime is related, really directly related to poverty
00:34:27.500and lack of access. But then what governments will try to do is create more projects for
00:34:33.540jobs. But what that usually means is resource extraction, which then hurts the environment
00:34:39.280even more. So there's this really big question mark of how do we move forward, especially in
00:34:46.300Amazonia, which is so globally mandatory for the stable homeostasis of the planet. And so I've read
00:34:55.280that, you know, you've previously stated that thus far approaches towards Amazonia are either solely
00:35:01.020through the lens of preservation or consumption. And as I understand it, you also believe that
00:35:07.800each of these methods is unsuccessful in yielding deforestation. So instead you advocate for a third
00:35:14.520way which utilizes technology to create sustainable development and i'm really curious how you think
00:35:20.620sustainable development of the global tropics is possible i i came to the conclusion of course you
00:35:28.320know if you look uh about 47 of the amazon forest is under some kind of protection indigenous land
00:35:38.760and or conservation units in all Amazonian countries,
00:36:25.540You know, there is a big indigenous territory in southeastern Amazon.
00:36:30.780It's called Xingu Indigenous Land, which is very large, 28,000 square kilometers.
00:36:36.400But it's completely encroached from the south by soy farms, by cattle, ranches and things like that.
00:36:44.860And also the climate change, the extreme droughts that we're observing in the Amazon in the last 13, 14 years also present a serious danger to these protected areas.
00:36:57.300So, I came to the conclusion that only talking about protection would not be what we call first way, would not be sufficient, although, of course, it's very important to maintain all those areas protected and also to give proper destination to most of these, still 20% of Brazilian Amazon, which are public lands, also towards protection.
00:37:23.960However, the second way we termed this very much large-scale, industrial-scale deforestation-led conversion of forests into grazing lands and crops, and we concluded that that would not lead to real development.
00:37:46.580Not to the Amazon people, not to Brazil, because, as I mentioned before, productivity is very low, very, very low.
00:37:55.140And, you know, most of the forest areas, clear areas in the Amazon are for grazing land.
00:38:07.000And out of those 70 percent, about 20, 25 percent have already been abandoned.
00:38:13.800So it's a very inefficient system in which the cattle rancher is operating a pasture for a decade, 15 years, and then productivity becomes very depleted, very, very low, does not have a way to keep the cattle in that property, and then moves on, clears more land, and this cycle continues.
00:38:40.100So we said this second way is unattainable. We have to find the third way to see some economic benefit coming from the Amazon, but not second way, which is a resource intensive way, which is this large scale agriculture and also mining and hydropower.
00:39:02.820So that's why we conceived of what we call third way for the Amazon, which would be a biodiversity driven bioeconomy.
00:39:15.460It's a new concept. It's a bioeconomy with standing forests.
00:39:21.020So it's a very clear principle of this third way is standing forests and also flowing rivers, because, in fact, the potential for new renewable energies in Brazil, mostly solar and wind, is so gigantic that there is no need for further big, big hydroelectric dams, which create a number of problems.
00:39:48.580And that energy is no longer necessary for Brazil's development and also for other Amazonian countries' development.
00:39:57.200In spite of the fact that there are many, tens of new dams planned to be developed over the next few decades.
00:40:08.300But anyway, the third way then looks at what?
00:40:11.360Looks at the intrinsic economic value of biodiversity.
00:40:15.560diversity, the biological assets hidden in a forest have a tremendous economic potential,
00:40:26.180which has not been tapped, hasn't been explored for lack of knowledge, for lack of science.
00:40:32.840But we have some good examples coming from indigenous groups.
00:40:38.080Let's say, think of, you know, manioc, a species native of central southern Amazon, which was domesticated perhaps hundreds of years ago, perhaps a thousand years ago by indigenous groups and spread all over the Americas.
00:40:56.860And they have tens of different varieties of that maize.
00:41:03.560There is one tribe in in Western Amazon in Peru.
00:41:09.220And of course, maize came from Mexico thousand years ago, domesticated in Mexico by the Mexico, Central America, the Mayas and came to South America.
00:41:20.160And one indigenous group in western Peru has developed 130 different varieties of maize.
00:41:28.680So that agrobiodiversity is a very good example in which we could model a new development pathway for the Amazon.
00:41:39.140So merging traditional knowledge with modern scientific and technological knowledge to really to tap, to harness that potential, which is tremendous, is gigantic in agroforestry systems, in the forest itself.
00:41:59.500So the understanding the biology of this highly diverse ecosystem can bring so much knowledge that we could certainly convert some of that knowledge to process, to products, to basically to well-being, not only of Amazonian populations, but global well-being.
00:42:21.360We have this good example of this fruit, this berry, it's called acai berry, which today is known all over the world, is becoming a niche market.
00:42:33.580That was a product consumed by the indigenous people for millennia, as there are hundreds, not to say thousands, of other products.
00:42:43.400And until 20 years ago and then, you know, there was a development in Brazil of the production of this acai berry coming both from forests and also from agroforestry systems.
00:42:55.840And acai berry now brings about $1 billion to the Amazonian economy.
00:43:01.120It's a big industry with several products all over the world.
00:43:06.960And that's bringing better quality of life to about 300,000 people producing acai.
00:43:14.680Still, it's not high tech, but that is a good example.
00:43:22.260So like acai berry, there are hundreds of such products.
00:43:27.140So the third way, basically, is a proposal for us to bring the modern technologies of the fourth industrial revolution, which is almost irreversible, that the world will move towards that technology.
00:43:42.880Of course, those technologies bring a lot of concerns in terms of job markets, what it's going to do with the jobs all over the world.
00:43:53.900But for the Amazon, we can think of a model in which we bring these technologies, which are becoming accessible, user-friendly, open access, to add value to the products of biodiversity.
00:44:05.960So that's the concept we are developing.
00:44:09.460those concepts. We wanted to start producing some pilot experimentation. We created this concept of
00:44:16.500Amazon Creative Labs. Those will be traveling units, traveling labs that would move to community,
00:44:26.400to community, to forest people, even to indigenous groups. And they will help to train, to show
00:44:35.700to these groups, local populations, how to add value to their traditional value chains
00:44:44.580of products they've been producing, but also to explore new potential, new possibilities,
00:44:50.580new products, and also to try to build a bridge between traditional knowledge of their own
00:45:00.340property, intellectual property, and how to make sure that they keep the traditional knowledge
00:45:07.540and make traditional knowledge to benefit the local population, the forest people in the Amazon.
00:45:12.640So, in a nutshell, that's the concept of this Amazon Third Way. We also call Amazonia 4.0 to
00:45:22.100make a reference to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. And we are just trying to bring
00:45:28.520link some of these elements into pilot projects to the Amazon in the next couple of years.
00:45:58.520The For The Wild podcast team is so grateful for the continued support
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00:46:54.040being able to focus on biodiversity and traditional ecological knowledge
00:47:05.360i think is the way forward and time and time again from people we speak to on the show
00:47:11.960really that's that's the crux of i think what people are wanting to move to and do in a way
00:47:19.460that is modern, because of course, we're not going to somehow get out of this modern world
00:47:23.900anytime soon. Civilization has a stronghold on us. So I really appreciate hearing your thoughts on
00:47:30.680that. Another question I wanted to ask about is definitely a topic that is very high in the
00:47:38.480United States right now around borders. And it's just to humanity's detriment, the ramifications
00:47:46.680of climate change are really appearing alongside a rise of nationalism. And I wonder about just
00:47:54.300the impacts of national borders as we try to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially
00:48:00.280in the case of Brazil, which contains, like you were saying, 60% of the Amazon rainforest within
00:48:06.260its borders. So I'm wondering if you think that borders will be a shortcoming when it comes to
00:48:12.380comprehensively addressing climate change? And what do borders mean when we are all globally
00:48:18.240impacted by the health of the Amazon region? And then I also wonder who gets to speak and
00:48:24.200make decisions on behalf of the rainforest? What good is the nation or what does the nation even
00:48:30.660mean when we are rapidly dismantling our planet's ecological boundaries?
00:48:35.140Yeah, those are very important questions. We have, although we are much less developed than Northern North America, U.S. and Canada, but perhaps we have one advantage in the Amazon is that historically countries feel more equal.
00:49:00.560Let's say we do not have in South America a Monroe Doctrine.
00:49:07.340It's not like, you know, the U.S. is the big commander of everything that happens in the West, in the Americas.
00:49:16.560And so, so far, the diplomatic and commercial relations between all Amazonian countries are very good.
00:49:27.640Of course, now there is some risks because Venezuela, unfortunately, also entered a very
00:49:36.020nationalistic movement, ideologically to the left, but still is very nationalistic.
00:49:43.440And Brazil is probably also moving into a very nationalistic moment to the right.
00:49:51.880So, but again, I mean, we are, we do not have, we haven't had, for a long time, the type
00:50:02.760of problem, let's say, that US, Mexico face with this.
00:50:11.440We don't feel, Brazilians don't feel they are morally, intellectually or whatever superior
00:50:17.200than any other Amazonian country population.
00:50:20.380So I hope that this Amazon Third Way will be seen not as a Brazilian initiative, it will be seen as a Pan-Amazonian initiative, that we will learn more, for instance, the way indigenous groups organize themselves.
00:50:39.880When you have an indigenous group sitting right around the border with components of those groups on both sides of the border, they consider themselves to be one people.
00:50:53.820So these national differences, I mean, fade away when you talk about more connectivity.
00:51:02.180Connectivity is given by other elements, not by a border, a political border.
00:51:09.560So the Amazon, we would like really to see, to think of that as a concept of one large area with all these countries, but as a continuous with many, many diverse ecosystems, highest biodiversity on the planet, many forest people, indigenous groups all over the Amazon.
00:51:34.340I would like really to see that as a whole with diversity, as a whole with mega diversity, social diversity, agrobiodiversity, social biodiversity, all those elements compound and compose the Amazon as I would like to see the Amazon to develop, really to pay much, much less attention to strict borders and to see more integrated Amazon.
00:52:03.360In the Amazon also, for a long time, for perhaps over 30 years, there is an agreement among all Amazonian countries.
00:52:12.120It's not very active or effective agreement, but at least we haven't seen any major problems in terms of relations between nobody's thinking of erecting walls in the Amazon or even in South America, which is still good news.
00:52:33.660uh and however of course because of this populist nationalist autocratic trend in many governments
00:52:44.020and we are seeing that all over the world not only in south in the americas we one has to pay
00:52:50.320attention to see how long or how strong this this swing of political uh movements will last
00:52:59.760Of course, if Brazil or any other Amazonian country becomes extremely nationalist, then we might start seeing problems across borders in the Amazon, which we haven't seen to date.
00:53:15.620Of course, there is a problem in the Amazon, which is organized crime.
00:53:23.020Unfortunately, the unsolved question globally, speaking of drugs, is a major problem in the Amazon.
00:53:32.160The Amazon produces a lot of drugs, mostly cocaine, crack, and Brazil is a way these drugs are exported to many other countries.
00:53:42.920So there is organized crime operating in all Amazonian countries. A lot of these drugs travel through Amazonian rivers, Amazonian airstrips. There is a lot of smuggling of weapons.
00:53:57.680So it's a very complicated situation, unsolved situation, organized crime, and all this organized crime is linked, for instance, the organized crime responsible for land grabbing, which is very common, still operating in the Amazon every day.
00:54:20.140As you know, the Amazon, a lot of local leaders, environmental leaders, rural leaders, they have been assassinating the Amazon in the last several years.
00:54:35.220World record always coming from the Amazon in the last year, few years.
00:54:39.560So this is all related also to these criminal organizations responsible for land grabbing.
00:54:52.820I mean, of course, border speaking is less of a problem because Amazonian countries are relatively, they have stable, peaceful relations for a long time.
00:55:05.180However, the organized crime question, particularly related to drugs and also to land grabbing, is a very serious issue, which is increasing in proportion. And that's one that it's not easy to find solutions for.
00:55:22.860Thank you so much for this interview. Thank you so much for all of your research, Dr. Nobre. This is globally important research and it's so comprehensive and I am really looking forward to re-listening to this interview so I can take more of it in because this is really something for all of us to sit with.
00:55:44.120It's not it's not something that, you know, many of us are going to understand immediately because there's so much complexity and so much compounding issues on top of one another.
00:55:56.120And we all as a global community need to be invested in the protection of Amazonia.
00:56:01.900So thank you again. And I'm I'm here to support your work.
00:56:07.120Thank you very much. And I'm really glad to hear about the existence of your project.
00:56:13.120It's a very worthwhile project, and really I imagine a world with technology as well, with technology as well, because technology can play the good side, on the good side, in which really we can't, you know, even with 7 billion people or 8 or 9 billion people,
00:56:36.120So we can't really occupy less than 50% as famous biologist Edward Wilson calls for.
00:56:45.500We can't occupy less than 50% of the planet for our own good.
00:56:51.320We can keep, make 50% of the planet to move back to wilderness.
00:56:57.800So your project for the wild is a very compelling, very important, and I wish you the best success.
00:57:06.120thank you for listening to for the wild podcast i'm ayana young the music you heard today was by
00:57:33.500Leigh Halls. I'd like to take a moment and thank our podcast team, our co-producer and editor,