For The Wild - September 30, 2015


ELIZABETH KOLBERT on the Coming Age of Loneliness ⧸28

Topics
TREBBE JOHNSON on Bearing Witness to Wounded Places ⧸27 BUFFY SAINTE-MARIE on Creative Decolonization in a Global Village ⧸29

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Length

57 minutes

Words per minute

139.35

Word count

8,075

Sentence count

294

Harmful content

Toxicity

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

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Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:00.000 It's high on a mountain, the warm winds are blowing, and where the winds are blowing to,
00:00:26.400 There ain't no way of knowing
00:00:29.400 The mountain grass is short
00:00:32.680 It's dry and close to burning
00:00:35.440 Crying out for water
00:00:38.680 As the season's turning
00:00:41.680 Sweet smell the pines
00:00:46.680 Tall western cedar
00:00:48.360 Drifting on the wind
00:00:51.840 Through the mountains like a river
00:00:54.440 Hello, I'm Ayanna Young, and I welcome you to Unlearn and Rewild, where we explore radical
00:01:07.280 ideas relating to earth renewal. In the race to name this new bizarre geologic era,
00:01:14.240 Anthropocene seems to have stuck the most. Some people are cautious to embrace a name meaning
00:01:19.420 the age of humans, as it can be latched onto by industry and used as a justification for the
00:01:26.200 murder of the planet. More descriptive, cautionary names have been suggested too.
00:01:32.660 Michael Soule suggested the Catastrophozoic Era. Other contenders include Homogeocene,
00:01:39.520 Age of Homogeneity, Myxocene, Age of Slime, and the most resonant to me, coined by E.O. Wilson,
00:01:47.320 Eremocene, the age of loneliness. With the human population and explosive expansion,
00:01:55.160 it's easy to forget the earth is going through the most rapid and possibly the most massive
00:02:01.180 extinction crisis the world has ever seen. Joining us today to help us digest the great
00:02:07.560 amount of information being amassed around the globe about this major juncture in earth's history
00:02:12.320 is Elizabeth Colbert. Elizabeth is a staff writer for The New Yorker, author of Field Notes from a
00:02:19.360 Catastrophe, Man, Nature, and Climate Change, and most recently, The Sixth Extinction,
00:02:25.760 An Unnatural History, which has just won the Pulitzer Prize for nonfiction.
00:02:31.040 Hello, Elizabeth. Thank you for being here with us. Thank you.
00:02:36.880 There is a smattering in the public media about this sixth great extinction we are in the early
00:02:41.880 days of. But considering the magnitude of this catastrophe, it should be ringing in the ears of
00:02:47.920 every world leader, corporate chair, professor, parent, and child, so we can take the reins of
00:02:53.940 this runaway civilization and attempt to ground it as gracefully as possible. I have heard numbers
00:03:00.140 such as 200 species a day are going extinct, but it's difficult to pin a number on it for many
00:03:05.600 reasons. What are the numbers you have seen in your research? Or what data do you use to back
00:03:11.840 up the fact that we are entering and essentially unleashing a mass extinction event? Well,
00:03:18.300 it's a good question. And I guess the first thing that I should say is people throw that number
00:03:24.240 around of how many extinctions we're experiencing per day. And I think that that is considered
00:03:31.000 pretty suspect right now. It's based on using something called the species area relationship
00:03:41.580 and then looking at how much habitat is being lost. And it was sort of a projection based on
00:03:47.000 rates of deforestation. And it's hard to know. There's a bunch of potential problems with it.
00:03:55.200 So even though it does get bandied around in the popular press a lot, I don't think it gets used in the scientific literature very much at this point.
00:04:04.000 And I don't use it except to point out that we can't document this.
00:04:10.560 If it is happening, we can't document it.
00:04:13.340 Now, one of the reasons that potentially we can't document it there, as I said, there are several potential reasons.
00:04:19.440 it's either you know not happening or most of the species that would go extinct in any extinction
00:04:27.200 event mass extinction event would be invertebrates because they're the vast majority of species on
00:04:33.140 the planet and we have very poor records of them so there are all sorts of you know possible
00:04:37.280 complexities to that number now how do we know so that's the negative okay about that number now
00:04:43.180 the positive or I shouldn't call it positive but the thing that we can say is so how would we look
00:04:50.160 at extinction rates today that would be a useful way to look at them and I think people have thought
00:04:56.420 a lot about this because it is important to quantify try to have some quantitative sense
00:05:03.160 of what's going on and one of the difficulties we have looking at extinction rates is we don't
00:05:09.540 even know how many species there are on the planet. Not even, some people would argue,
00:05:15.380 within an order of magnitude. So what people have done to try to constrain this problem is look at
00:05:25.460 groups of animals or organisms, I guess I should say, that we do know pretty well. So mammals are
00:05:32.600 a very good example. We have a pretty good idea how many species of mammals there are on the
00:05:38.400 planet right now. And we also, they're very carefully monitored. So we have a pretty good
00:05:45.140 idea of, you know, which ones are endangered, which ones are critically endangered, etc. And
00:05:51.100 if you look, people have looked, taken a look at how fast mammals are moving through various stages
00:05:58.520 of endangerment and becoming extinct. And when they look at those, and there's just a pretty
00:06:04.000 big study on this published pretty recently, they find that extinction rates are very, very high.
00:06:10.560 They are the kinds of rates that you would expect to see during a mass extinction event. So those
00:06:17.340 are the types of data that people point to when they say to say that we are now either in a mass
00:06:25.160 extinction or on the verge of a mass extinction event are looking at well-studied groups and
00:06:30.260 looking at extinction rates among those groups. E.O. Wilson published an article where he estimates
00:06:37.520 the current extinction rate for certain areas is 10,000 times the normal background rate,
00:06:43.740 and that biodiversity is heading to the lowest level since the end-Cretaceous extinction event
00:06:49.220 that snuffed out the dinosaurs and all land animals over 50 pounds. Here we have one of the
00:06:55.160 world's most respected scientist, delivering another chilling statistic. Can you break that
00:07:00.580 down for us? Well, scientists try to calculate this idea of background extinction. So there's
00:07:07.840 this idea that, well, extinctions are happening all the time, which is true. Species seem to have
00:07:13.760 a certain sort of average lifespan, if you will, just like, you know, individuals have an average
00:07:20.480 lifespan and but that seems to you know vary from group to group and so what paleontologists have
00:07:28.960 done is gone back and it's a very very painstaking process and they go through the fossil record and
00:07:36.240 sort of look at you know when you see the first you if you look at you know some organisms are
00:07:41.600 are easily fossilized and some are not and so you get a lot of biases in the record too that way
00:07:49.160 potentially but if you try to look at when you start seeing an organism an easily fossilized
00:07:55.120 organism which tends to be like an animal with a shell for example those are much more likely to
00:07:59.660 be fossilized than something that's just you know very squishy like say like a worm or something
00:08:05.300 um and you see when it appeared and you see when it disappears from the record and you do that over
00:08:10.940 you know multiple multiple species in a big group you get kind of an average lifespan for a species
00:08:17.340 in a group and you know very very roughly speaking people have looked at the record and
00:08:23.960 arrived at lifespans for species in different groups um and you know very roughly speaking
00:08:30.280 the average species may last let's say a million years and so that would be the background
00:08:36.240 extinction rate if the species lasts a million years and you know how many species there are
00:08:40.420 in that group you know you should be able to calculate okay roughly how often should we be
00:08:45.080 seeing a species go extinct. Now, when you compare that, that's exactly what people are doing, you
00:08:51.500 know, when they go out and say, okay, how many? So with mammals, a figure that I quote in my book,
00:08:56.700 which was done, arrived at by a paleontologist through a lot of painstaking work, was you would
00:09:02.020 expect a mammalian species to go extinct, let's say, once every 750 years or so. And if you compare
00:09:08.860 that to the rate that we actually are seeing mammals go extinct, you find that extinction
00:09:13.680 rates. I don't know if they quite reach 10,000 times, but they're very, very high. And then
00:09:19.800 among some groups of animals, they probably are. They're certainly 100 times faster. For some
00:09:25.840 groups, they're probably 1,000 times faster. And for some groups, they may already have hit 10,000
00:09:32.600 times faster. Now, one of the complexities that you get into is there are a lot of
00:09:37.000 species around right now that are not technically extinct, but they are already functionally
00:09:43.040 extinct. So, you know, there's a lot of squishiness here, but that's the basic idea.
00:09:49.060 You wrote about the biological dynamics of forest fragments project, BDFFP, which is a study area
00:09:56.380 down in the Amazon in Brazil, where farmers were subsidized to go out and deforest the rainforest
00:10:02.080 to graze cattle. But they were also required to leave a portion intact. And for 30 years,
00:10:08.500 this patchwork of degraded and pristine forest have been studied.
00:10:12.480 So what has been discovered through this about fragmentation?
00:10:16.340 And is it contributing much to the extinction event?
00:10:19.780 Now the BFFD is not really looking at extinction per se.
00:10:27.120 It was looking at, as the title suggests, looking at the dynamics of fragmentation.
00:10:32.060 what happens, what you lose from a particular forest when you fragment it. So how big is the
00:10:40.020 fragment? That turns out to be significant. But when you cut off a piece of forest, even if that
00:10:44.940 piece of forest remains intact, it turns out you lose a lot of species. You know, theory suggests
00:10:49.840 that, practice suggests that. And in fact, when you do the work, you find that same thing. But
00:10:56.260 those species that are lost from that particular fragment are not extinct, right? You can sort of
00:11:01.580 extrapolate from that maybe to extinction rates, but we're not actually looking at extinction
00:11:05.680 because they may well exist somewhere else in the forest still.
00:11:10.440 Well, the tropical rainforests hold an incredible amount of biodiversity,
00:11:15.340 probably in the millions of species. And I'm wondering if there had ever been such species
00:11:20.800 richness prior to the other extinction events, or is our current age the most biodiverse?
00:11:26.940 one sort of very rough figure you know we often have the problem that we're we're looking at the
00:11:33.500 present we have even the present we don't have very neat access because we have pretty dim
00:11:40.760 understanding of the invertebrate life on the planet right now we can't be in all places at
00:11:45.940 once sometimes an animal is thought to be extinct and a tiny little population has survived and it
00:11:51.120 you know, pops up again. So even now, even with the best, you know, technology available and
00:11:57.400 lots and lots of people looking for things, we still only have a very patchy picture of what's
00:12:02.640 going on in the world. And in the case of previous extinction events, you're talking about going back
00:12:09.920 tens and in several cases, hundreds of millions of years. So we have a very, very sketchy,
00:12:15.780 you know, idea. But one rough figure that's thrown around is that in a major mass extinction,
00:12:22.200 of which there have been five over the last half billion years, which is why my book is called The
00:12:28.200 Sixth Extinction, 75% of the species have disappeared. So that's sort of used as the
00:12:35.060 threshold for a major mass extinction. Now, obviously, we have not yet gotten rid of 75%
00:12:42.000 of the species on earth and I personally certainly hope that we won't but the point is to go back to
00:12:49.340 the point I made earlier that if you look at the rate that things are going extinct for example
00:12:54.660 look the rate mammals are going extinct now you say well we could be reaching that 75 percent of
00:12:59.920 all mammals within the next several centuries and that is very very short span of time on the
00:13:06.600 geological time span. And we would have expected the mass extinction events of the past probably
00:13:13.180 took several hundreds, several thousands, many thousands of years. So we are losing species at
00:13:18.980 that rate. And that is what is extremely alarming. Now, what biodiversity looked like in each of those
00:13:24.820 mass extinctions, the world looked very, very different at different times. And the major mass
00:13:30.900 extinctions are turning points in the history of life. That's very, very clear. And one of the
00:13:37.500 major mass extinctions, which was a very, very serious extinction, the end Permian extinction
00:13:42.620 about 250 million years ago, that was what brought to an end the Paleozoic, what's called the
00:13:49.180 Paleozoic. And a whole fauna went out. I mean, it just, the world changed very dramatically. So
00:13:57.680 everything you know that went on uh and and had descendants formed what we call the mesozoic fauna
00:14:05.560 and then uh at the end of the cretaceous period about 66 million years ago um there was another
00:14:13.600 major mass extinction and the mesozoic came to an end and we now live in what's called the
00:14:18.680 cenozoic so there's been this these very very dramatic shifts and we wouldn't even recognize
00:14:25.160 a lot of the creatures that populated the world, you know, they were the dinosaurs,
00:14:29.560 but they were, you know, not dinosaurs.
00:14:31.160 There were many, many creatures that didn't go on to have descendants.
00:14:34.460 And so to us, they seem very odd looking, but they were often very dominant groups of organisms
00:14:39.380 prior to these extinction events.
00:14:55.160 Blood red moon is rising
00:15:13.480 And the sun is falling down
00:15:17.780 Blood red moon is rising
00:15:23.640 And the sun is falling down
00:15:27.940 Blues sitting on my shoulder
00:15:33.700 Singing about my last go round
00:15:37.700 Times are hard
00:15:42.940 Hard times ain't to blame
00:15:45.740 Good luck with trouble
00:15:48.300 Trouble wouldn't know my name
00:15:51.220 Oh, that moon is arising
00:15:53.380 Giving me the evil eye
00:15:57.800 My woman told me
00:16:03.220 You can kiss yourself goodbye
00:16:06.120 Blood-red moon is rising
00:16:12.180 And the sun is falling down
00:16:16.260 It wasn't always common knowledge that species even went extinct.
00:16:30.460 What prompted this discovery?
00:16:33.140 What was the thought process that science went through?
00:16:36.280 And how did this revelation change our view of the world?
00:16:39.620 well you know western science sort of has a a long and somewhat bumpy history so you know
00:16:47.720 things happen they didn't happen sort of in a neat progressive way in the case of extinction
00:16:54.100 people believed through the 18th century certainly so through the 1700s
00:17:01.460 even you know people were very sophisticated in you know different ways that for example
00:17:07.960 Thomas Jefferson that species didn't go extinct they were part of this great chain of being that
00:17:12.600 was the way people looked at the world um and every creature was a link in that change that
00:17:18.340 had been made by you know a creator and there was no point for the creator to make a link you know
00:17:23.980 only in order to break it and that would you know have ruined the lovely completeness of the chain
00:17:30.020 and so even as evidence sort of started to mount that there were these weird things that had existed
00:17:36.300 that had left fossils behind, but that didn't exist anymore.
00:17:41.080 People really resisted it until the beginning of the 19th century,
00:17:46.600 when a French naturalist who is now somewhat of a forgotten figure,
00:17:52.100 but who was really the great scientist, the great naturalist of his time,
00:17:58.540 and was probably the most famous naturalist of the 19th century
00:18:03.600 until charles darlin came around so for for 50 years or so um just looked at mastodon fossils
00:18:11.840 where he's sort of one of his main inspirations and mastodon fossils came from the new world so
00:18:19.060 they came to paris from the u.s actually from the midwest and they're very odd because they have
00:18:25.280 elephant tusks and they have but they have don't have elephant like teeth their teeth are very
00:18:30.320 different because they're part of a you know pretty distinctive evolutionary lineage and
00:18:34.440 people had terrible time figuring out you know what these were were they two different animals
00:18:39.300 were they three different animals and this french naturalist george couvier um correctly surmised
00:18:46.240 that they were the same animal uh and that this animal didn't exist anymore it was not a bit of
00:18:52.040 neat you know experimental deduction it was sort of almost a leap of faith that he took
00:18:57.120 in saying that. And of course, he turned out to be right. And he realized that there were whole
00:19:02.340 worlds of extinct creatures that had existed prior to the 19th century. And people then
00:19:08.940 subsequently went out and found them. And the 19th century was a great time of paleontology,
00:19:14.560 of digging up, you know, what we now know as dinosaurs, all these, you know, really interesting
00:19:19.480 creatures that just came into people's consciousness in the 19th century. And extinction
00:19:24.780 as a concept that was born there.
00:19:54.780 I've heard it said
00:20:22.700 that amphibians are a kind of canary in the coal mine for this extinction event.
00:20:28.440 Amphibian populations are collapsing especially abruptly, in part due to this fungus known
00:20:33.220 as BD, which is now wreaking havoc worldwide.
00:20:37.300 Why are amphibians susceptible, and do we know where this fungus originated?
00:20:43.000 And is there a way of controlling or combating it?
00:20:46.240 Well, I will say a couple of things.
00:20:49.420 First of all, I don't necessarily, I mean, I'm not a naturalist.
00:20:53.500 I'm not an amphibian specialist.
00:20:54.880 But I think if you talk to amphibian specialists, they would not say amphibians are canaries, the canary in the coal mine.
00:21:01.240 The canary was brought in into this weird man-made environment to signal the coal miners about to croak.
00:21:08.640 Amphibians have been around a lot, lot longer than people have, you know. 0.94
00:21:13.660 And they're not necessarily particularly delicate creatures.
00:21:16.940 Their life history on Earth over hundreds of millions of years suggests that they're actually very robust creatures, and so that we shouldn't look at them as delicate creatures that are giving us a sign of something bad.
00:21:33.160 We should, in some sense, be even more worried, because they're actually very, very tough creatures.
00:21:40.760 So that's just to frame the question somewhat differently.
00:21:44.240 Now, BD is a fungus, and it appeared in many different parts of the world, you know, more or less simultaneously, as best that people can ascertain, and its origins remain somewhat mysterious.
00:22:01.080 What people have done is they take samples of this fungus from the frogs around the world and they've analyzed them genetically.
00:22:09.620 And there's a very sophisticated genetic analysis that can be done now that can oftentimes, if you're fortunate and if things line up, you can trace things back to their origin.
00:22:20.440 You see where the genetic diversity was the greatest and then you see it sort of different strains of it that got carried around to different parts of the world.
00:22:30.380 So you should be able to sort of build this family tree of this fungus and then trace it back to the matriarch or patriarch, however you want to put that, and figure out where it came from.
00:22:40.060 But in the case of BD, that has actually turned out to be very frustratingly difficult, and people have not been able to trace it to a clear source.
00:22:49.080 So one theory, which I think is not that popular now because the genetics haven't worked out, was that it was imported around the world on these frogs called African clawed frogs, which were exported from Africa in the 30s and 40s and 50s for pregnancy tests, for use in early pregnancy tests.
00:23:12.240 So that was one theory.
00:23:13.620 and then um another theory is that it might have come even from american bullfrogs actually who
00:23:20.540 were been exported around the world just for just for food they're grown for you know they're sort
00:23:25.540 of raised it's like you know little little cattle or whatever around the world so that's another
00:23:30.760 possibility and no one um no one knows and because the genetics are a little bit obscure it's not
00:23:38.340 entirely clear that anyone ever will know, but I think that the thing that convinces people that
00:23:44.580 it was something that was moved around the world is, as I said, that it appeared pretty much
00:23:50.860 simultaneously in a lot of different parts of the world, and it's very hard for a fungus
00:23:54.640 to get around that quickly without human assistance. Certain fungi and diseases have
00:24:01.300 spread around the world with disastrous consequences to species that have no resistance to them,
00:24:07.420 But also, there are these invasive plant and animal species.
00:24:11.640 Now, on a local level, biodiversity would go up in the short term as new species arrive.
00:24:16.840 But the ecological balance can be thrown off, and native species inevitably lose their place at the table.
00:24:24.120 So could you tell us about your findings about how invasive species are contributing to the extinction event?
00:24:31.600 Yeah, I mean, there's different kinds of diversity, right?
00:24:34.000 I mean, there's local diversity, and then there's global diversity. And, you know, we've moved a lot, a lot of stuff around the world, we are still continuing to move stuff all the time. I know a lot of the times we do it on purpose. And a lot of the times we don't do it on purpose. But the bottom line, and I think it's sort of not at all debatable, is at least in a kind of human timeframe, there are parts of the world where diversity has increased in a local sense.
00:25:03.460 Your backyard, for example. But because invasives and introduced species have tended to have a really devastating effect on islands, for example, in particular, where you have a lot of really fascinating creatures who have evolved in the absence of certain kinds of predators, let's say, in the absence of whole groups and whole classes of other animals.
00:25:30.240 So, for example, I was in New Zealand about a year ago, and, you know, New Zealand is a pretty big place, but it had no terrestrial mammals until humans arrived.
00:25:44.860 It's just a weird corp of evolutionary history, and it was isolated for a very, very long time, and then people showed up, and so they had a lot of ground-nesting birds.
00:25:54.840 Some of the most famous are the kiwi, who are really wonderful, very, very sweet creatures and very defenseless against mammalian predators and very smelly, too.
00:26:07.300 That's another interesting fact is that a lot of these ground nesting birds on New Zealand are kind of stinky.
00:26:14.380 And that is because they didn't have mammalian predators and mammals hunt by smell.
00:26:19.080 So as soon as mammals showed up and they showed up in the form of rats and cats and once again things that people brought purposefully and things that they brought accidentally, these birds were just devastated and so many of them no longer exist.
00:26:33.900 So New Zealand in itself would be a good case study because in some level there may be more species than there used to be, right?
00:26:42.740 I mean, rats are another species, they're a form of biodiversity, but the species that only existed on New Zealand are gone.
00:26:51.260 So we've lost species in a global sense, even though in a very local sense, in some parts of New Zealand they actually have more species now than they used to.
00:27:00.820 while we're in that part of the world i'd like to talk about what's threatening the very existence
00:27:07.800 of the great barrier reef and all the world's coral reef and that's ocean acidification
00:27:13.220 which has been implicated in mass extinctions of the past some scientists have warned that
00:27:19.440 the oceans could become all but uninhabitable by 2100 that's two-thirds of the globe emptied of
00:27:26.660 life. Can anything be done to counteract this acidification process? And in your view,
00:27:33.480 how likely are these outcomes? Well, acidification refers to this process by which, you know,
00:27:40.920 when we put carbon dioxide into the air, and you're putting a lot of carbon dioxide into the
00:27:45.620 air by burning fossil fuels. So a lot of it, it goes into the air, right? You know, it comes out
00:27:53.660 your tailpipe or it comes out of a smokestack and then a lot of it about a third of it gets
00:27:59.880 uh dissolved very quickly in the surface waters of the ocean and that's just because
00:28:04.800 there has to be an equilibrium between the air and the water and and to achieve this equilibrium
00:28:10.660 um when you you know stuff a lot of co2 into the air you are in effect also stuffing it into the
00:28:17.480 ocean that's not very scientific but it's the best i can do right now and what happens when
00:28:23.180 co2 dissolves in water is it forms an acid carbonic acid and it's a weak acid if you had a
00:28:31.320 carbonated beverage you drink it but it is an acid and so it changes the chemistry of the oceans
00:28:37.580 and the oceans are naturally kind of alkaline for people who remember their high school chemistry
00:28:44.280 they should have a ph of around 8.2 the surface waters of the ocean so we've already reduced that
00:28:50.520 to around 8.1 and it's just going to continue to be driven down as we dissolve more and more
00:28:57.160 CO2 in the water so as the water becomes more acidified it's not becoming acidic but it's
00:29:03.340 becoming acidified and when you think about it changing the chemistry of the ocean if you're a
00:29:10.000 marine creature is a really big deal because marine creatures only interact with the rest of
00:29:16.660 the world through their contact with the water so it's akin to changing the composition of the air
00:29:23.000 for us and you can imagine that that could have some pretty serious consequences and in terms of
00:29:28.720 what we could do about it there's really only one thing that we can do because there's nothing you
00:29:36.100 can do to prevent the oceans from taking up co2 once we put it into the air that's just a really
00:29:42.240 fundamental geophysical process. So the only thing that we can do to prevent the oceans from
00:29:48.100 taking up more and more CO2 is stop putting it into the air. I don't think anyone has come up
00:29:54.780 with, even in theory, a different solution. And do you think that this mass extinction
00:30:02.500 and all the human meddling with the Earth that has brought it about could have such profound
00:30:08.020 effects that earth no longer will be able to host such a diverse array of complex life forms
00:30:13.540 or would we just expect a new and different cast of characters well i mean i think that
00:30:20.760 all we have to go on when we look at mass extinction is the fossil record and that is
00:30:27.720 as i said that's a kind of a scratchy mirror because it the record is in many cases old in
00:30:34.520 many cases sort of patchy and then you know obviously involves as you know we were talking
00:30:39.560 about before a whole different groups of organisms that simply don't exist anymore so you know we
00:30:45.900 don't necessarily have a good analog and in fact one of the phrases that you see more and more in
00:30:52.360 scientific literature is this idea of a no analog future so we are going into a future in which
00:30:59.000 in certain sort of geochemical sense, I guess, almost, there's no analog, there's just nothing
00:31:06.340 you can find in the fossil record that is a very good parallel to what the planet's going to be
00:31:12.560 like. But if you look at the mass extinctions of the past, one thing that's clear is that it takes
00:31:20.280 a long time for biodiversity to rebound just because you're speeding up. Extinction doesn't
00:31:25.940 really mean that you're speeding up evolution you're opening up a lot of ecological you know
00:31:31.420 what are sometimes called ecological niches um but the process of evolution which is a
00:31:36.260 random process of you know genetic mutation does i mean some people might argue i suppose in some
00:31:43.060 ways that it does get speeded up in the sense that you do have all this empty space out there
00:31:48.240 for organisms to fill but you know the process of mutation probably doesn't get sped up so
00:31:53.520 So, you know, and in some sense, evolution remains, you know, fairly constant.
00:31:57.680 And so what we see when we look at that is it takes really millions of years for biodiversity to rebound.
00:32:04.500 And if you actually succeeded in an extinction that rises to the level of a major mass extinction, then yes, absolutely, you'd expect a new cast of characters many millions of years from now.
00:32:16.860 It wouldn't be something that humans, our own species, which presumably has its own lifetime of roughly a million years, we wouldn't be around to see it, but that's at least what you would expect to see in the eventual fossil record.
00:32:46.860 Story let me live, the stars are known and fixed for all children.
00:33:02.300 Story a report, rush right past the world to the single world.
00:33:16.860 Who memorizes life
00:33:38.620 The echo of the shadow
00:33:41.280 And who'd leave us, but it's all
00:33:47.840 No, we've just been warned
00:33:51.040 I've never found a soul 0.98
00:33:53.980 Story, let me die
00:34:13.580 Get to the garden and leave anybody outside 0.62
00:34:19.940 Stories sell me, sing
00:34:27.740 Step through the tree, running the street
00:34:32.560 We all know blood, blood and pain
00:34:49.940 We're here with Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Sixth Extinction, Elizabeth Colbert.
00:35:03.600 You were involved in research in Peru, tracking the ability of trees to respond to warmer temperatures
00:35:09.180 and extend their range uphill into the cooler altitude of the Andes.
00:35:13.900 What did that research turn up? Are the trees able to migrate, in a sense?
00:35:19.940 Well, I was just tagged along with a bunch of scientists who have been going to the same area and have laid out a very intricate series of plots that they've been looking at now for several years to try to, as you say, figure out how are tree communities responding to climate change.
00:35:41.080 And what they have found is that different trees, different groups of trees respond differently.
00:35:49.240 So some trees are very responsive to climate change, and they have moved upslope. So obviously trees can't move, but they can put out seeds, right, which are then going to sprout and survive at higher and higher elevations. That's sort of what you would expect if you're just doing a really back of the envelope sort of ecological calculation.
00:36:14.980 So some trees have moved almost as fast as temperatures are rising,
00:36:21.040 and they're rising very, very quickly in the Andes.
00:36:23.880 And some have not.
00:36:25.000 In fact, most have not moved nearly as fast as temperatures are changing.
00:36:28.720 So what does that tell us?
00:36:31.700 At the very least, it tells us that the composition of the forest is going to change under climate change.
00:36:39.240 That's the effect that you'd anticipate, and it's almost certainly the effect that we are seeing
00:36:43.600 and that we're going to see more and more of.
00:36:45.360 Now, what does that mean for everything that lives in those communities
00:36:50.040 and these very intricate relationships?
00:36:53.720 As certain relationships break down, are new ones going to form?
00:36:57.560 Are species going to drop out?
00:36:59.460 These are really hard questions to answer,
00:37:02.120 and they get back to the point we were talking about earlier,
00:37:04.580 that you have to monitor things really, really carefully,
00:37:07.880 and you're sitting there in the cloud forest.
00:37:09.820 You can't see more than a couple of yards away
00:37:13.260 because you're in very, very dense vegetation.
00:37:15.760 So people are also trying to figure out ways to sort of piggyback on this experiment
00:37:20.980 and trying to figure out what's happening to the birds,
00:37:24.220 what's happening to the insects, and on and on.
00:37:26.760 But it's a very time-consuming and very labor-intensive project.
00:37:30.720 So I don't think we have any very good results from that yet.
00:37:35.320 And since plants, trees, mosses, and the like can't move on a set of legs,
00:37:40.320 there's been a lot of talk about assisted migration,
00:37:44.680 manually transferring plant communities to more conducive habitat.
00:37:48.800 Is this viable or even realistic?
00:37:51.240 Or just wishful rearranging of deck chairs on a sinking ship?
00:37:56.460 Yeah, I don't know that there is actually much of that actually going on
00:38:00.300 because you do raise this question of how do you know?
00:38:03.880 I mean, I think that what this experiment indicates really nicely
00:38:08.800 is here is a relatively undisturbed forest as forests go in the world,
00:38:15.480 and we're watching in real time the response of that forest to climate change.
00:38:20.300 Now, if I decided, well, I want this particular species to move,
00:38:24.560 and I helped it, let's say, by planting it further and further upslope,
00:38:31.280 would I be, as it were, doing the forest a service?
00:38:35.200 That's a really, really difficult question to answer
00:38:38.460 because we don't really know we just don't know the answer to that so um you know in cases
00:38:45.680 so i think that's a very very contested subject right now and it's just saying okay well we've
00:38:53.680 you know screwed with the system so far that we've changed the climate that we've made it inimical
00:38:58.720 to a lot of organisms where they are now and now we are going to have to decide you know which ones
00:39:04.620 to move and to wear and then you get to another interesting and really complicated set of
00:39:10.040 calculations which is that organisms don't just respond to temperature you know that's also very
00:39:15.760 clear once again when you go back and look at the pollen record which people have done very very
00:39:20.120 carefully in certain parts of the world pollen is these tiny little grains but if you look at
00:39:25.700 them under the microscope you can under the right circumstances and this is often done in lake beds
00:39:32.000 like old lake beds. You pull up a core and you can see what kinds of trees were in the area
00:39:38.820 from many thousands of years ago because pollen turns out to be extremely durable, these
00:39:43.180 microscopic grains of pollen. So from that, we kind of have a good idea that trees, for example,
00:39:49.640 don't just respond to the temperature. They're also responding to changes in rainfall. Some are
00:39:55.340 more sensitive to temperature, some are more sensitive to water availability, and the list
00:39:59.860 goes on and on. So if you wanted to move X species, should you move it, well, where the
00:40:05.940 temperature is suitable? Should you move it to where the rainfall is suitable? You know, so there
00:40:10.020 are a lot of variables. And I don't think that anyone would suggest that we really know what
00:40:16.680 we're doing, even for a single species here, much less a whole forest's worth.
00:40:24.000 So as much as there is a scientific debate, there's an ethical debate as well.
00:40:28.960 Are we going to be the curators of life?
00:40:31.980 We've come to the conclusion that we are causing this.
00:40:35.280 Now, should we take the responsibility to counteract the extinction trend?
00:40:40.280 Right. Are we the deciders?
00:40:42.060 Well, on one level, you could say, well, obviously we are the deciders.
00:40:46.540 We are making decisions, even if we don't acknowledge it or realize it or doing it consciously.
00:40:53.940 we are making decisions collectively, all 7.2 or 3 billion of us that have tremendous effects
00:41:02.180 that we often find very difficult to anticipate what they're going to be. But then when you say,
00:41:07.120 okay, well, let's consciously take action to counteract this massive decision, quote unquote,
00:41:13.580 that we've all made by starting to move individual species around, then the ethics of it,
00:41:20.200 which were already incredibly complicated but were unconscious they come to the fore right you
00:41:26.760 know so are you should you be moving this species which might displace another species because of
00:41:33.680 your hunch you know that it's not going to survive where it is etc so it does become very
00:41:38.500 fraught very quickly i think it's going to occupy us more and more though as we go forward and in
00:41:46.540 terms of the frozen zoo what that is that is one of these collections of frozen cell lines and that
00:41:54.640 particular one is at the san diego zoo although there are several other important cell banks in
00:41:59.560 other places and what what they're doing is they're preserving tissue of organisms that some
00:42:07.040 of them aren't very rare some of them in fact in that case one of them at least is already extinct
00:42:12.060 and some of them are not rare, but what they would say they're doing and I believe they're doing is
00:42:17.820 they're preserving things so we have a record of them, you know, and so we can look at their
00:42:22.800 genetics later on. Not necessarily so that we can manipulate them or move them around,
00:42:29.840 but in the sense that we would have a library moving forward. But in terms of the passenger
00:42:35.640 pigeon, I was watching a talk about de-extinction and they brought up implanting a fertilized egg
00:42:41.480 created from DNA of an extinct species into an existing species.
00:42:46.780 Are we nearing that capability?
00:42:49.800 Right.
00:42:50.620 That is, at this point, a very fascinating concept, but it's not at all even being used.
00:42:59.860 It's very, very far from proof of concept.
00:43:02.940 So in the case of the passenger pigeon, we don't have a passenger pigeon genome at this
00:43:08.220 point.
00:43:09.200 It's certainly possible that you could get one.
00:43:11.800 You know, there's a lot of passenger pigeon material around,
00:43:15.040 but everything's been dead for at least 100 years
00:43:18.780 since it's just marked the 100th anniversary of the death
00:43:22.960 of the very last known passenger pigeon.
00:43:26.320 And so once an organism dies,
00:43:29.980 its DNA very, very rapidly starts to disintegrate,
00:43:35.300 but there probably is enough DNA left in all these passenger pigeons that we have around
00:43:42.540 that you could reassemble it through some very sophisticated genetic work.
00:43:48.460 You would never have a perfect one, but you would have an approximation.
00:43:53.420 And then you could start to potentially manipulate the genome of its closest relative,
00:44:00.540 which is a pigeon that lives west of the Rockies,
00:44:04.320 whereas the passenger pigeon lived east of the Rockies.
00:44:08.160 And then it would get brought up by one of those birds.
00:44:12.500 All these things are theoretically potentially possible,
00:44:16.240 but we're very, very far from actually being able to do them.
00:44:19.960 And then you also get the interesting idea of,
00:44:23.420 well, what would you have brought back?
00:44:25.620 Well, it clearly wouldn't be a passenger pigeon.
00:44:28.500 and a lot of what an animal is is also, you know, learned behavior.
00:44:33.120 Birds learn a tremendous amount from their parents.
00:44:35.340 We don't have any parents around to teach them. 0.91
00:44:37.160 So they're going to be this other kind of weird hybrid pigeon. 1.00
00:44:41.760 And, you know, whether that has any efficacy or point, 1.00
00:44:45.560 to be honest, I'm pretty unconvinced that it does,
00:44:49.120 but I understand that people find it quite fascinating.
00:44:58.500 Thank you.
00:45:28.500 Thank you.
00:45:58.500 Thank you.
00:46:28.500 Where do you think our efforts will be best directed for conservation?
00:46:35.060 Well, I think our efforts would be, you know, and I, once again, I really try to preface it whenever I offer an opinion like this by saying, you know, this is not really my opinion. It's an opinion I've heard from experts in the field.
00:46:52.900 I don't want to say it's universally shared by experts in the field, but I think it's a very commonly voiced opinion, and I find it pretty compelling.
00:47:02.300 And that is this idea that we should really try to be preserving to whatever extent we have intact tracts of forest.
00:47:14.520 And also, same thing would go for the marine realm, same thing would go for savanna, whatever ecosystem we're talking about.
00:47:22.900 To the extent that you have large, intact ecosystems or semi-intact, because that may be the best we can do these days, to try to preserve them.
00:47:36.620 I mean, I think that the idea that we're going to overcome one kind of vast manipulation of the planet with these little insulency, you know, let's move this plant here or this animal there and see how it goes, are really kind of ridiculous, to be honest.
00:47:54.020 Because one thing that we really shouldn't have learned about the natural world is it's pretty unpredictable and it's hard for us just looking at one variable or even a hundred variables, you know, to know what will actually happen because the natural world is arrived at by this interesting process of trial and error that is evolution.
00:48:14.740 So I think that, and this has been voiced by many people, having as many large, intact forests as possible that have some form of connectivity, that's a big buzzword these days, in conservation.
00:48:29.360 so because everything's on the move as we discussed in terms of either upslope or to
00:48:35.160 higher latitudes they need to be able to get to where they would go that also gets to this
00:48:41.980 question of well some species will follow the temperature what's known as the isotherm some
00:48:46.680 will follow rainfall so we need to sort of let them go as it were where they want to go and the
00:48:54.780 other point is obviously to try to preserve as many lineages as possible and some people
00:49:01.840 EO Wilson talks about this moment that we're in right now as a kind of a as a bottleneck where
00:49:08.420 we possibly have the maximum number of people on earth certainly that there have ever been and
00:49:15.040 maybe that there ever will be so we take up a lot of resources as people and if you can get as much
00:49:22.500 of the world's biodiversity through this moment and eventually perhaps and this is the most hopeful
00:49:27.660 thing that you could think of you know there'll be a time when the human population starts to
00:49:32.720 decline you know just for natural reasons that we stop having as many kids we go through this
00:49:37.720 bulge sort of and our impacts also decline and maybe there will be more space just you know
00:49:43.600 sort of sheer physical and ecological space for some of the species and if we've managed to get
00:49:48.780 and through what is right now a very bad time
00:49:51.900 and what will probably be in coming decades a very, very bad time,
00:49:56.080 then maybe you will have done the best you can in really bad times.
00:50:01.560 And the fear, the flip side of that,
00:50:03.580 is that by the time human populations start to decline for whatever reasons,
00:50:07.580 potentially for very bad reasons, for very ugly reasons,
00:50:11.220 we're going to take a lot of the rest of the world down with us.
00:50:18.780 Death don't have no mercy
00:50:42.560 In this land
00:50:45.120 Death don't have no mercy in this land
00:50:53.840 Come to your house, you won't stay alone
00:51:01.000 Somebody will be gone
00:51:05.420 Cause death don't have no mercy in Ireland
00:51:10.460 Death will go into any family in this land
00:51:19.460 Death will come into any family in this land
00:51:29.460 It's gonna come in your family
00:51:34.460 You won't stay long
00:51:38.720 You're looking bad
00:51:42.480 You'll be gone
00:51:45.260 Living here in California, the drought is a big topic of conversation,
00:51:51.780 and we are being told refraining from lawn watering and taking shorter showers
00:51:56.320 is going to make a dent in the water shortage.
00:51:59.020 And that's fine, but we're well aware it's actually industry
00:52:02.980 that's accountable for the vast majority of water use.
00:52:06.520 What industrial activities would you say are the biggest drivers of extinction?
00:52:11.420 Well, I just want to say one thing in California.
00:52:13.780 Is it industry or is it agriculture?
00:52:16.440 Yeah, I'm including industrial agriculture in that.
00:52:19.400 Well, you know, the way that we farm is definitely,
00:52:23.360 it's a huge contributor to loss of habitat.
00:52:28.660 Is that a big driver of extinction?
00:52:30.700 Probably it is.
00:52:31.980 That sort of gets back to the point we were talking at the very beginning, which is we don't know what's happening to a lot of the species on Earth because we're not really keeping track of them.
00:52:41.820 But yeah, industrial agriculture is really a huge water use, as you point out.
00:52:49.040 But also, I think even maybe more significantly, it's conversion of very big tracts of land to monocultures.
00:52:56.600 obviously when you're converting a big tract of habitat whatever it was into one thing corn soy
00:53:04.740 whatever it is uh and you're a creature that can't live off that well then you're you know
00:53:10.200 you're just out of luck so you just have to either have some other place to go or you're going to die
00:53:16.880 out and now another thing that we do with monoculture agriculture and agriculture in
00:53:21.600 general that I think is proving really damaging and destructive. People are talking about this
00:53:28.160 second coming of Silent Spring as we have developed a whole new generation of pesticides.
00:53:34.780 We may really regret having spread all over the U.S. and Europe and seeing really significant
00:53:41.020 impacts on insect populations. And when you start to see your insects going, it's probably a pretty
00:53:47.780 bad sign. Yeah, and I'm wondering, there is still debate about climate change and the Anthropocene
00:53:55.740 extinction, and somehow people are denying our implication the whole thing. Now, your books have
00:54:02.700 had a huge reach already and have earned you a Pulitzer in nonfiction, and they can be had as
00:54:08.380 audiobooks as well. So how have your books been received by the press and the public with your
00:54:13.880 unequivocal stance on climate and human-driven extinction. Have they brought about any hostilities
00:54:19.820 or debunking efforts? Well, you know, as we speak right now, Obama is in Alaska talking about
00:54:29.140 climate change in the Arctic. And I think that simple climate change denial is becoming
00:54:37.520 harder and harder to sustain. It's simply irrefutable that the climate is changing.
00:54:43.880 It's changing in exactly the ways that were predicted. So you really, really have to go to
00:54:49.500 fantastic lengths to explain what's going on without referring to, you know, what are just
00:54:55.880 basically the facts. But, you know, there's levels and levels of denial as to where there's
00:55:02.260 just people sticking their fingers in their ears. So even if, you know, what they believe is
00:55:06.580 important but what they do is also important so even if you say well i think climate change is
00:55:12.020 the problem or maybe it isn't whatever your attitude is if we're not voting for some really
00:55:17.380 pretty drastic policy changes then you know it doesn't really matter whether people quote unquote
00:55:24.420 climate change i don't like to use that um phrase because it's sort of like you know do you believe
00:55:29.680 in the Loch Ness Monster and that's really not the phenomenon that we're talking about
00:55:33.540 And we're just talking about basic geophysics here.
00:55:38.580 But once again, all that being said, I got a surprisingly positive reaction to both of the books.
00:55:44.440 I did not get a lot of pushback from people.
00:55:48.060 You know, there always were the people sort of trolls on the Internet or whatever,
00:55:52.060 but I got an overwhelmingly positive response to both books.
00:55:56.580 I'm also wondering, where can people go to find more of your writing?
00:56:00.220 Well, I write mainly for The New Yorker.
00:56:03.020 So if people want to find some of the articles that, you know, went into the book or a piece I did out of New Zealand,
00:56:11.740 which we talked about, the invasive species of New Zealand, if they go to the New Yorker website, they can probably find those.
00:56:19.660 Well, I'm so grateful for the immense amounts of information you have sifted through to put these books together
00:56:25.840 and the many laps around the globe you have made
00:56:28.500 to get the first-hand narratives you've brought us.
00:56:31.200 So thank you so much for all your work,
00:56:34.380 for being on this program.
00:56:36.280 Well, thank you. Thanks for having me.
00:56:53.380 You've been listening to Elizabeth Colbert,
00:56:55.840 on Unlearn and Rewild.
00:56:57.940 I'm Ayanna Young.
00:56:59.580 The songs you've heard were
00:57:00.820 Blood Red Moon by Dave Van Ronk,
00:57:03.560 Davers and Dinsetta by Fred Frith,
00:57:06.260 New Myth by Leah Isis,
00:57:08.680 Cathedrals at Fleur de Lis by Robbie Basho,
00:57:11.520 and Death Don't Have No Mercy by John Martin.
00:57:14.480 The theme song is Like a River by Kate Wolfe.
00:57:17.420 Editing is by Nicole West,
00:57:18.780 and production by Marcia.
00:57:25.840 through the mountains like a river.
00:57:29.200 Sweet smell of pine, tall western cedar,
00:57:35.560 drifting on the wind, through the mountains like a river.
00:57:55.840 Thank you.